CHELTENHAM 2008 - SPA NOVICES HURDLE

26 Jan - Byrne Group Cleeve Hurdle Grade 2 (Class 1) (5yo+) 12 hdles 3m

Gone To Lunch - 3rd @ 25/1

racingPost - If there was a surprise package in this race it was the novice Gone To Lunch, who showed much improved form in a staying-on third. However, he has been highly progressive all season and the stiffer the test the better he looks. If the form can be taken at face value he will be the one to beat in the 3m Spa Novices' Hurdle back here in March.

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CHELTENHAM 2008 - TRIUMPH HURDLE update

Race Conditions
The JCB Triumph Hurdle (2:00pm) is a Class A Grade 1 hurdle run over two miles and a furlong. It is only open to four year old novices.

Recent Winners
The final day of the Festival gets underway with the cavalry charge that is the Triumph Hurdle. The race always attracts a large field, which means that luck in running is critical.

All the runners are four year olds and so inexperience has also tended to be a problem in the past. However, it seems to be less so these days with more horses coming to the juvenile ranks straight from lengthy careers on the Flat.

Because they are so much more battle hardened than their more traditionally jumps bred counterparts, it is becoming almost impossible to win the race with anything other than either a decent recruit from the Flat or a French bred runner – racehorses in France begin schooling and racing over obstacles much earlier than British or Irish horses.


Key Races
Franchoek was the impressive winner of the Coral Future Champions Finale Juvenile Hurdle Grade 1 in December.

One of the most useful form guides is actually to look at the runners flat form. Detroit City, Penzance and Katchit, who have won the last three runnings, were all rated highly on the flat.

Last time out winners is a key form trend with 12 of the last 13 winners having won their final prep race.

Stamina is also key for the race with horses proven over a mile and half warranting close attention.

Celestial Halo was beaten just 3.25 lengths in the 2007 St Ledger - cheltenham-betting.co.uk


Key Trends
12 of the last 13 winners won last time out.

Only 2 favorites in the last 13 runnings have obliged.

Alan King horses won the race in 2005 & 2007.

9 of the last 14 winners started in the first 4 in the betting.
- cheltenhamreview.net


9TH FEB
Don't write off CELESTIAL HALO, I still expect him to be thereabouts in the Triumph - P. Nicholls.

CELESTIAL HALO was much higher rated on the flat, he ran off a mark of 100 when beaten just under 4 lengths by LUCARNO in the St. Leger - R. Dunwoody.

FRANCHOEK - The only concern with the horse is the ground, as there is some doubt how he will go if the ground firms up. He does have a pronounced knee-action which suggests he is happier with a bit of cut in the ground. - R. Dunwoody.

4TH FEB update
CELESTIAL HALO beaten on Saturday by SENTRY DUTY (6yo) so not the end of the world, the point was made in Sundays Racing Post, the horse is open to improvement and it is very unlikely that the horse was fully wound up 4 weeks BEFORE its Cheltenham target.


Another tricky race, so lets concentrate on what we know ??

CELESTIAL HALO - P. Nicholls main hope, won lto.
Galileo gelding.
Finished 7th in 2007 St. Leger btn 3 lengths
"Could be very special" - A. Stewart (owner)

BINOCULAR - Placed in listed company in FRANCE, won on Hdl debut, Plenty of form on soft ground. Different class to FRANCHOEK on flat (Both owned by JP Mc Manus).

I think at this point a lot of the value has gone in regard to Ante-post betting, so at the moment NO BET is the recommendation on this race.

27 Jan - update
sportinglife - Franchoek has been cut into 7/2 from 5s for the Triumph Hurdle by Betfred after he romped to victory at Cheltenham.

Robert Thornton never had to ask Alan King's star hurdler a question as he kicked clear off the home turn and jumped the last in fantastic style to easily dispose of Serabad.

"In my opinion that was the best race that Franchoek has run," said Betfred's Dave Metcalf.

"He has all the right attributes for a Triumph Hurdle candidate, and it will take a real good one to lower his colours in March.

"If anything does beat him they will certainly know they have been in a battle!" added Metcalf.

"However it will be interesting to see which one of JP McManus' Tony McCoy will ride, as Binocular oozed class when winning on his debut at Sandown and Nicky Henderson is very bullish about his chances in the Triumph, for which we go 8/1."

CHELTENHAM 2008 - BALLYMORE PROPERTIES HURDLE

10 Feb update

FORPADYDEPLASTERER @ 16/1 - emerged as a serious threat to all at Cheltenham with a stylish victory in the Deloitte Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown.

Trainer Tom Cooper said: "He does want further but we have been running him over shorter to teach him to race at speed.

"He had a slight problem behind after his last race but these races have been about educating him to jump and travel.

"I am thrilled with him and he will be twice the horse over a trip. He'll go for the Ballymore now and wait to you see him over fences next year!"


THE TOTHER ONE - Best price 14/1 with Victor Chandler.

RacingPost (3Feb)
He is improving rapidly and will be some sort of chaser next year. He is in the BALLYMORE and the 3 mile Hurdle and we will make up our minds nearer the time.

IF the ground dried up we would go 3 miles as he is quite versatile, BUT he will probably go for the BALLYMORE.

CHELTENHAM 2008 - ROYAL & SUN ALLIANCE CHASE

Recent Winners
Shocks are often a feature of this event, and only two favourites have won in the last thirteen years. Cheltenham is always a tough place for novice chasers, and the quicker pace of Festival races and the stamina sapping trip have all probably contributed to this statistic.

The key then is to find tough, stamina laidened contenders who jump well, even if they don’t boast as much form or potential as some of their rivals. - cheltenhamfestival.net

AIR FORCE ONE 2 pts WIN @ 8/1 is my Ante-post bet for the race.

Key Trends
30 of the last 33 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out.

11 of the last 13 winners were aged 7 or 8.

2 winning favourites since 1992, but 9 of last 13 winners started between 2nd-4th fav. - cheltenhamreview.net

18 Feb 2008 - Albertas Run joined Air Force One at the head of the betting for the Royal & SunAlliance Chase after beating that rival by almost two lengths in the Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase at Ascot. They both share top spot on the 5/1 mark, while Joe Lively, who finished out with the washing in the same contest, is now 14/1 (was 8s). - williamhill

9 Feb update
MONEY TRIX will NOT run in the race. He has had a little problem and is undergoing treatment which will last for around 2 weeks - rp. - cheltenhamfestival.net


SILVERBURN - Current BEST odds available: 16/1 with Willliam Hill

RacingPost (3 Feb 2008)
He's in he ARKLE as well as the Sun Alliance but the only way he would run in the ARKLE is if it were absolutely bottomless, so it's highly likely he will run in the RSA. 3 miles round Cheltenham will suit him - P. Nicholls (Trainer)


TIDAL BAY, currently as low as 6/1 fav on some books for the SUN ALLIANCE Chase.

RacingPost (3 Feb 2008)
Tidal Bay didn't run up to his best. He raced keenly in the lead, a tactic that probably wasn't ideal for him, but it was his jumping that really let him down. He can jump, but he was getting in tight early on, and made a complete mess of the seventh when going in too long. Although he came back to lead again three out, and was clear going to the last, he completely misjudged the final fence, did well to stand up, but lost out in a driving finish.

On this evidence you wouldn't want to consider him for any race, either over 2m or 3m at Cheltenham, for his jumping just isn't good enough. However, he is talented, though probably not a two-miler, and he shouldn't be written off completely but needs to regain confidence in his jumping.

CHELTENHAM 2008 - TRIALS & POINTERS W/END

RIPPLING RING - WON @ 7/2

racingPost - RIPPLING KING scored in good style on his debut, overall, the form is easy to pick holes in. However, the winner did it well, travelling and jumping well, and after going on two out, stumbled for a stride on landing over the last, but ran on strongly to score cosily. He could well be a great deal better than the bare form suggests and will be an interesting candidate in the Supreme Novices.


ASHKAZAR - WON @ 4/7

racingPost - ASHKAZAR did not look entirely straightforward going to two out and briefly faced a serious challenge from Bormo until putting his Flat class to good use on the run-in and scoring comfortably.

The Chepstow Grade 1 in which he was fourth to Franchoek is working out well, and that was his only defeat since he arrived from France with smart staying form to his name on the Flat. He has entries in both the Triumph and the Supreme Novices', and is now a 16-1 chance with Corals (20-1 with Cashmans but shorter elsewhere)for the former, although owner David Johnson reportedly is not very keen on the race.

TIDAL BAY, currently favorite for the ARKLE (2miles)and SUN ALLIANCE (2m5f) Chases.

racingPost - Tidal Bay didn't run up to his best. He raced keenly in the lead, a tactic that probably wasn't ideal for him, but it was his jumping that really let him down. He can jump, but he was getting in tight early on, and made a complete mess of the seventh when going in too long. Although he came back to lead again three out, and was clear going to the last, he completely misjudged the final fence, did well to stand up, but lost out in a driving finish.

On this evidence you wouldn't want to consider him for any race, either over 2m or 3m at Cheltenham, for his jumping just isn't good enough. However, he is talented, though probably not a two-miler, and he shouldn't be written off completely but needs to regain confidence in his jumping.

THE TOTHER ONE - WON @ 9/4 backed in from an early morning 4/1

racingPost - maintaining his unbeaten record and confirming that he is very much on the upgrade. Connections must have felt it was like picking money up off the streets whenhe scored off a 23lb lower mark on his last visit to this course, and he took the rise in his stride as he was held up about five or six lengths off the pace and made his progress to be upsides the leader at the last before being driven out up the hill. He was made a 12-1 shot (from 25) for the Ballymore Properties Hurdle and a more generous 16-1 (from the same odds) by VCBet for that race; he is one of several who may have been much better served by a stronger pace.

SENTRY DUTY - WON @ 7/1

racingPost - A 101-rated Flat performer and had finished fourth at Newbury last season on his only previous start over hurdles. He stepped up on that with a fine display, travelling and jumping well and after quickening clear from the second-last, fairly romped home. He has a choice of novice engagements at the festival, and after this convincing win, he could go very well indeed in his chosen race.

The form has a more solid look than the first division as well for the first two finished a long way clear of the rest. Second went to the easy Newbury winner Celestial Halo, another smart recruit from the Flat who was odds-on to follow up thatsuccess. However, although penalised, he was firmly put in his place by the winner. He didn't appear to do a great deal wrong either, for though not fluent at every hurdle, he jumped well enough, came to the stands' side to challenge in the straight, butwas simply outpaced by the winner, though in turn he finished well clear of the remainder. He may well have run up to his Newbury form, which make his conqueror a pretty smart cookie.

CHELTENHAM 2008 - TRIALS & POINTERS W/END

Two horses fancied to go well today by trainer Paul Nicholls:

2.35 sandown THE TOTHER ONE

3.40 sandown GUNGADU

There should be some real Cheltenham festival pointers today and tommorrow.

RIPPLING RING - finished 3rd in Sth African Derby should be an interesting one on his hurdling debut. A good run will see his price cut for the SUPREME NOVICES HURDLE.

ASHKAZAR needs a good performance to get him into one of the Novice hurdle races.

TIDAL BAY, currently favorite for the ARKLE (2miles)and SUN ALLIANCE (2m5f) Chases, his run today should determine which of the races he will run in.

Taking part in the shorter race requires a horse that jumps well at speed, so the test today is to see whether his jumping holds up under pressure.

CELESTIAL HALO will need to run well to confirm his 2nd fav. position in the TRIUMPH HURDLE market.

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GOLF!!

I thought I would re-post this article from an old EVENING STANDARD as I am now taking an interest in betting on GOLF tournaments, but also simply because the article made me laugh.

What happened to 1923's "Worlds most successful men??";

President of the NYSE
RICHARD WHITNEY - RELEASED FROM PRISON TO DIE AT HOME.

Worlds Greatest Wheat speculator
ARTHUR COOGER - DIED ABROAD, PENNILESS.

President of the Bank of International Settlements
LEON FRASER - SHOT HIMSELF

Great Bear of Wall Street
COSABEE LIVERMORE - COMMITTED SUICIDE

Boss of largest steel company
CHARLES SCHWAB - DIED A PAUPER

Head of major Gas corporation
EDWARD HOPSON - WENT INSANE

PGA Golf Champion & Winner of US Open
GENE SARAZEN - PLAYED GOLF UNTIL HE WAS 92, DIED AT THE AGE OF 95, AND WAS FINANCIALLY SECURE AT HIS TIME OF DEATH!!

The moral, Screw work, play Golf