Betting4aLiving: GRAND NATIONAL 2008

SNOWY MORNING 2pts WIN @ 20/1 - Trainer W. Mullins.

MISTER POINTMENT 2pts WIN @ 14/1 - Trainer P. Nicholls.

AP McCoy to win the race 5pts WIN @ 14/1

CLOUDY BAY 2pts WIN @ 25/1.

CHELSEA HARBOUR 1pt WIN @ 50/1

BLACK APALACHI - 1pt WIN @ 66/1

2nd April - A Jockeys Birdseye view of the big race

How to ride the Grand National

Richard Dunwoody

If there is one race I miss lining up for, it is the Grand National. I have so many great memories of Aintree and have I've enjoyed such good fortune there, having won the big one twice – with West Tip in 1986 and Miinnehoma in 1994 – and been in the money on five other occasions.

It is the one race that really gets the adrenalin flowing, the one race that is embellished in the consciousness of the once-a-year punter and, as far as jump racing goes, it rightly deserves its tag of the 'world's greatest race'.

The build-up: On the morning of the National I'd sit on my mount, just to get the feel of him and to stretch his legs. Then if weight allowed, I'd have a bit of breakfast. If not, it would be a sauna.

Then I'd walk the course, going through the colours of the horses, mentally making notes of those you wanted to follow and avoid, and run through the race in your mind.

When the time comes, you are not normally tired down by strict orders, just perhaps told to “go out and enjoy it”. It is a race where you have to allow for every eventuality.

The start: When you parade in front of the crowds, there are always a few wise-cracks, especially if you've been beaten on one in the previous race. I liked to show the horse the first fence and then most jockeys would wish each other luck – not something you'd normally do! The start can be held up because a horse may spread a plate, but then suddenly the starter would call us into line. I'd like to jump off smartly and once the tapes go up, you'd invariably ignore the stewards, who tell you not to go flat out across the Melling Road.

First fence: I'd always want to jump the fence in the middle. At about 10 to 15 strides off it, I'd get the horse back on to his hocks and on the bridle in order to get him focused on the fence. The drop is not too bad. The second fence is a good bit bigger than the first and there often a few fallers at it, but the third is a very big open ditch and the first real test. While the fourth and fifth fences are straightforward, you are thinking ahead because Becher's Brook looms.

Becher's Brook (6th): I fell twice there – with Brown Windsor and West Tip – and Bigsun made such a bad mistake, his race was all but over. I'd always try to pull out and jump it down the middle, because the fence is on an angle with a huge drop towards the inner rail, and in years past it always felt like you were jumping into the crowd. It was the one fence anywhere that made me feel I'd have to simply take my chances. It is a real test.

Foinavon (7th): Is the smallest fence bar the water, but those horses have had a fright at Becher's, may not want to take off and they can make bad mistakes. It is a tricky fence and taken on the turn.

Canal Turn (8th): There is a sharp 90-degree bend and if you are on the inside, you can find yourself in trouble. It is a big fence and it helps if you can have a horse like West Tip who could turn on a sixpence. You try to apex the corner, as you would do in motor racing.

Valentines (9th): It has a drop, but it is a reasonable fence and when you get over the Canal Turn, you really start to concentrate on really getting your horse balanced and into a rhythm.

The Chair (15th): It is a huge fence and the most narrow on the course. The first time I saw it, I remember thinking, 'Oh s***, how does a horse jump something like that!' It is imperative you find enough room and not take off too far from it. There is a massive ditch in front of it and unlike any other fences, the ground rises on the other side, so you land at a higher level than you take off from.

The Water Jump (16th): My grandfather, Dick Thrale, fell at this fence in the 1920's and was perhaps one of the last people to do so. When you pass the stands you have a chat to those around you and it is time for a breather, but it is also where you can make up a bit of ground, depending on how you are going. You still have to keep your wits about you. In 1994, Jamie Osborne was on Garrison Savannah and we were having a chat going past the stands. We crossed the Melling Road, going towards the first fence on the second circuit, and a loose horse came and wiped him out!

Second circuit: Now the race is really on. There are perhaps only eight or nine who are in with a real chance, especially if the ground is softer.

Becher's Brook (22nd): After almost three miles, horses may be getting tired, which makes this fence all the more tricky. Get a right hold of your horse's head, go in at an angle and get him on to his near fore. I'd also want a lead off something.

Canal Turn (24th): Loose horses may be a problem, yet you'd try and jump the fence as you did first time round. This is where you really start thinking of it as a race, rather than simply surviving. There are now six fences to go and unless you are badly off the bridle, you want to conserve your energy.

Run in: It is 494 yards from the last fence to the line. There is a lot of open space when you land over the last and horses may begin to idle and hang. You have to be so aware that there is only one winning post; conserve as much energy as possible and not put the gun to the horse's head too soon. When you reach the elbow, you'll then really start to dig deep and ask your horse for everything. There is a running rail that should help keep the horse straight.

The line: Getting there in front is an unbelievable feeling. With West Tip it was sheer jubilation, with Miinnehoma it was a touch of relief, because I felt I'd gone too soon and almost thrown the race away – I'd got the shock of my life when Just So came up to my girth at the elbow, but we had more than enough to get there. There's no better feeling than winning a National.
31 March

Grand National Course Guide
BETWEEN them they have won the Grand National no less than six times. Now read the views of legendary trainer Ginger McCain along with jockeys Tony Dobbin and Graham Lee about the fearsome Aintree fences.

In an exclusive interview with Gordon Brown, the trio talk their way round the most famous steeplechase circuit of them all.

FIRST FENCE (1 & 17)

Lee: “Not a big fence but it can cause problems because of the speed we can be doing as there is such a long run from the starting area and everyone is so keyed up. Horses tend to over-jump and just pitch on their heads on landing — second time round it’s not so much of a bother.

Dobbin: “It can be a bit of a cavalry charge down to the first. Because the fences are so different to what we find on a park course horses tend to jump up in the air. Coupled with them going so fast - a lot of the fallers at the first are usually coming down too steep and landing on their heads.

McCain: “I would never dream of giving a jockey instructions but I like them to hunt round for the first circuit and get a horse nice and relaxed and into a rhythm. If possible try and keep him out of the hurly-burly of the race which is not an easy thing to do.

THIRD FENCE (3 & 19)

Lee: “This is a absolutely massive, humungous fence! When you get up and over that you know you’ve passed the first real test. It tends to come quick as well as we are galloping along at a fair rate of knots.

Dobbin: “This is as high as the Chair although the spread over the ditch isn’t as wide. It’s a very upright and big fence and we are still going at a quicker-than-normal pace coming into it. It’s not as narrow as the Chair but you are still looking for a bit of daylight on the inner or outside. Once we get over it you feel a sense of relief.

McCain: “Everyone talks about the Chair but believe me this is some obstacle and you have to be very careful. It’s equally as big as the Chair and they meet it much earlier on before they have warmed up properly.

BECHER’S BROOK (6& 22)

Lee: “It’s just a normal looking fence as you ride down it and nowhere near as daunting as they tell me it used to be, thank God. It’s a fence I always aim to go wide on the approach and take it on the outside. If you try to take it straight you look as if you are jumping into a crowd and it still catches a few out — there were loads of fallers last year. Four years ago when I won on Amberleigh House we were still about last coming to Becher’s second time round.

Dobbin: “Obviously since it was modified the drop on the inner isn’t nearly as bad as it used to be, but it remains a lot steeper on the inside than anywhere else. I try and get a nice jump across because, like Foinavon and the Canal Turn, it’s on a little bit of an angle. It can depend where you are in the race what you can do and you are also keeping an eye open for fallers on the landing side.

FOINAVON (7 & 23)

Lee: “It’s quite hard to explain how this rides as you’ve just got over Becher’s and then face what is one of the smallest fences on the course. When you sail over Becher’s you are waiting for the ground — at this fence the ground comes up to you.

Dobbin: “It’s a lot smaller than Becher’s but you still have to be careful and I again try and get my angles right. When I won in 1997 on Lord Gyllene I made most of the running and I could jump across exactly where I wanted to.

CANAL TURN (8 & 24)

Lee: “This is a very important fence and you have to get your angles right. That’s why, unless I was in front, I never go down the inner as you can run into trouble big time. If you're riding something in behind the leaders you can suddenly find ten horses wheel in on top of you if you’re on the inside — I’d rather be on a horse coming wheeling in that be a victim of that happening to me.

Dobbin: “If you get this one right, as with the previous two, you will have saved yourself a nice few lengths which can be crucial round Aintree. The big problems arise here if you are surrounded by other horses as you have to try and second-guess what they are about to do! Even more than Becher’s and Foinavon you have to cut that corner as much as you dare.

McCain: “Coming round here second time you want to be creeping into the race and aiming for the first eight or ten. But you don’t want to be rushing as you’re still a long way from home. You’re still looking at meeting the fences on a stride and keeping the horse balanced. A lot of horses are getting tired by this time - even crossing the Melling Road there are still five-furlongs to go - a lot of horses are committed to early.

THE CHAIR (15)

Lee: “After the Canal Turn everything is grand until the Chair comes into view — it’s massive and rides well. The ground just rises a little as you come towards it but as I said, the fence jumps well for its size.

Dobbin: “It’s a big fence but it’s more of a spread as well. It’s narrow and you need plenty of speed to get over it — we’re all delighted it only needs to be jumped once. Getting some room and light for your horse is very important. As it’s so wide a horse needs to see what it’s doing and there is always plenty of jockeying for position on the run down to the Chair.

McCain: “Hopefully your horse will have switched off a little bit and will have had a good clear view of the fences first time round. Passing the stands a lot of the bad horses (and some of the good ones) have gone so the field is starting to thin out a bit. About now you want to start thinking about easing into the race more.

ELBOW & RUN-IN

Lee: “Things can change a lot between the last fence and the line but you’d have to be awfully unlucky to get round and then fall at the last. I always like to steer a wide berth from the last and that effectively almost cuts out the elbow — I try and take a direct route right to the line.

Dobbin: “It all depends on what type of horse you are riding where you want to be landing over the last. I’ve ridden a few winners over the big fences and I always try to keep my mount together until we get to the elbow. If at all possible I try and resist the temptation to pick my stick up until I get to that point. Usually a horse will find a bit more for you in those cases and at that stage of the race it can be the difference of winning and losing

McCain: “Old Red Rum caught Crisp on the run to the line and he also won having been in front over the last. Two years ago Graham gave Amberleigh House an absolutely brilliant ride. He made sure he didn’t get there too quickly and as soon as Clan Royal started to wander about he was there to take full advantage. If you have got that little bit of gas left jumping the last, you can pick off a lot of horses if you can summon up another gear.

To watch last years race cut & paste the following link into your browser.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/player/sol/newsid_6550000/newsid_6556300/6556361.stm?bw=bb&mp=wm

28 March - Portfolio update

As we move into the week before the Grand National we want to take out some insurance on our betting portfolio to ensure a decent profit should the weather/ conditions go against us.

BLACK APALACHI, a revitalised stayer with some very useful handicap form to his name, looks the perfect each-way foil to our longtime ante-post win selection Cloudy Lane in the John Smith's Grand National.

Available at a massive 66-1 at the time of writing, the Dessie Hughes-trained 9yo appears nailed on to make the cut as he sits 49th in the weights on 10st 8lb and therefore needs only nine above him to drop out.

Having got in before the rush on Cloudy Lane (25-1) was advised at the end of December, well over a month before the weights were published, we can now do likewise with Black Apalachi, whose odds are likely to shorten in the run-up to the race because he looks to have a fair bit going for him despite not having won for more than two years.

A close inspection of the gelding's form reveals that he lost his way under the tutelage of Philip Rothwell - for whom he won the 2005 Paddy Power Chase over Christmas on only his fourth start over fences - but there have been definite signs of a revival since he joined Hughes' yard for the start of this season, highlighted by three performances around the turn of the year.

A close-up fourth in the latest renewal of the Paddy Power at Leopardstown showed he was getting his act together again and, following a similar placing in the Pierse Chase at the same venue, he put up his best display for some time when runner-up in the Thyestes at Gowran Park.

The first-time blinkers that worked to such good effect that day were left off for his only subsequent run at Leopardstown on March 2, but the 2m5f trip was too short anyway, especially on goodish ground. In the circumstances, he did not run at all badly to finish 26 lengths behind the winner Well Tutored and within striking distance of fellow Aintree contenders Chelsea Harbour and Slim Pickings (3rd in last year's National).

Hughes was obviously using that race as a sharpener and the key to Black Apalachi's chance will be the step up to a marathon trip because he looked a strong stayer when keeping on after trouble in running to finish sixth to You're Special in the Kim Muir two years ago.

His next two outings were over 3m5f, including in the Irish National, but he failed to run within two stone of his best form on either occasion so it's highly unlikely lack of stamina was to blame. There were glimpses of his old form in his last season with Rothwell, but nothing as concrete as the three good handicap runs he's put in for Hughes this term.

This is not some old plodder we're talking about either - Black Apalachi was a Grade 2-winning novice over hurdles just three years ago and finished a 20-length eighth to No Refuge in the Royal and Sun Alliance that season.

The horse's prominent racing style is a plus as it will increase his chances of avoiding trouble and it's not hard to see him popping away near the front because he's never fallen or unseated, over hurdles as well as in his 17 races over fences. He's also adaptable ground wise, having shown a decent level of form on a variety of surfaces, and he certainly won't be inconvenienced if the heavens open, which might be a worry where Cloudy Lane is concerned.

Donald McCain's highly progressive 8yo remains the most likely winner of the race as, in terms of handicapping, he's thrown in having improved significantly again since the weights were framed.

McCain has long maintained that the gelding is better on better ground, so a slog in the mud wouldn't be ideal even though he's got winning form in testing conditions. He's such a quick, economic jumper however that I don't see stamina being an issue unless the ground is very soft, like in Earth Summit's year. - attheraces.com

27 March - WEATHER UPDATE
Unsettled start to National week

by Turia Tellwright

THE Met Office on Wednesday painted an unsettled picture in the build-up to the National meeting, which begins next Thursday.

“The temperature will rise to about 8C tomorrow afternoon, with the rain starting at about midnight until dawn on Friday,” a Met Office spokeswoman said on Wednesday.

“It's an unsettled picture with showers right through until the middle of next week but with temperatures rising, there is no sign of frost.”

Clerk of the course Andrew Tulloch said: “We've had about 3mm of rain so far today and we'll probably get more tonight, going into Thursday and Friday.”

“I would be a lot happier if it would just get a bit warmer but it should get up to about 10 or 11C at the weekend which is good news as we could just do with it warming up a bit. I'd also be happy with a bit more rain.”

The going remained unchanged and was on Wednesday officially good on the Mildmay course and good, good to soft in places, on the National course.

- racingpost.co.uk

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I have decided the way to approach the Grand National is to come up with a portfolio of four or five horses with the right profile and to back them Ante-post at big odds.

I backed a couple earlier this year when I read that their high profile trainers had decided to target their charges at the race.

SNOWY MORNING 2 pts WIN @ 20/1 - Trainer W. Mullins.

27 MARCH 2008
WILLIE MULLINS on Wednesday reported Hedgehunter and Snowy Morning, his two Grand National candidates, “on track” for the Aintree spectacular a week on Saturday when Hedgehunter, winner of the race in 2005, will be making his fifth consecutive appearance in the John Smith's-sponsored event.

Mullins said: “It's all systems go with our two National horses. They are in good form and we will school either over the weekend or early next week when Ruby gets back from his skiing holiday in France. I'm not sure yet which of them Ruby will ride.”

Runner-up in 2006 and ninth behind Silver Birch a year ago, Hedgehunter finished three and a half lengths in front of stablemate Snowy Morning when they ran second and third respectively behind Afistfullofdollars in the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse last month.

- attheraces.com

MISTER POINTMENT 2 pts WIN @ 14/1 - Trainer P. Nicholls.

27 March 2008
Mr Pointment will lead Paul Nicholls' assault as the champion trainer seeks his first National triumph.

"We have three definite runners in the Grand National at this stage," said Nicholls.

"Mr Pointment will run and Sam Thomas definitely rides having won the Becher Chase on him over the National fences.

"Liam Heard rides Royal Auclair and Cornish Sett is a definite runner, although I have not finalised jockey plans for him. Opera Mundi could line up if it came up soft, while Turko is a possible but has other options." - racongpost.co.uk

I also backed A. P McCoy to win the race 5 pts WIN @ 14/1, which now seems a trifle ambitious at the odds!!

Wednesday 26/03
National cash for Castle

King Johns Castle is proving popular with punters ahead of the John Smith’s Grand National on Saturday week. Arthur Moore’s nine-year-old, who could form part of JP McManus’ three-pronged assault on the Aintree showpiece, is now 16/1 from 25s with Leeds-based bookmakers William Hill.

Champion jockey Tony McCoy is JP’s retained rider but he has yet to decide which horse he will partner in the world’s greatest steeplechase. ‘AP’ could also be seen on board Butler’s Cabin (Jonjo O’Neill) or L’Ami (Francois Doumen).

Victory in the Liverpool marathon has so far evaded the legendary owner/punter, but could King Johns Castle be the one to carry his famous green and gold hoops home next weekend? - racingpost.co.uk

“Butler's Cabin seems in good form and he does jump and stay. He hasn't been to Aintree before, but I think he is big enough to take to the fences and, if he does, he has a live chance. It is his head that could be a bigger problem than his height! Good ground would be important; if it was soft and slow he might give up. He ran well first time out at Leicester but was very disappointing on Saturday. He did collapse after his races at Cheltenham and Fairyhouse and that might have got to him and he might be thinking about it. We have had him checked out and he seems fine and we'll have to give him another run before Aintree. His weight looks okay".

- Jonjo O'Neill, trainer of Butler's Cabin (11st), Bob Hall (10st 8lb), Drombeag (10st 3lb), Risk Accessor (10st 1lb) and Innox (9st 13lb)- racingpost.co.uk

Additionally I invested in the Pricewise selections based on the success of the column in the race over the years.

CLOUDY BAY 2 pts WIN @ 25/1.

“I'd be happy with Cloudy Lane's weight – getting them in the race is the most important thing. It would be nice if Beef Or Salmon were to turn up, as we would have a cracking weight then. Idle Talk's weight gives him more of a chance than last year. He's not certain to go, but if we do decide to run, it seems a sensible rating. He ran a very nice race at Doncaster the other day, so no complaints. Bannister Lane might struggle to get in off that weight and he will go for what was the Eider at Newcastle. He will have other years.”

- Donald McCain, trainer of Cloudy Lane (10st 8lb), Idle Talk (10st 6lb) and Bannister Lane (10st) - racingpost.co.uk

CHELSEA HARBOUR 1 pt WIN @ 50/1

“At least he is under 11st, I suppose, and we'll have no trouble in getting a jockey. I'll have to have a chat to the owner and we'll have a good talk about it,but he might never have that weight again. Stamina isn't an issue with him, but the race is a long way off yet.” - Tom Mullins, trainer of Chelsea Harbour (10st 13lb)- racingpost.co.uk

27 March 2008
TOM Mullins is counting down the days to saddling Chelsea Harbour in the John Smith's Grand National.

The world's most famous steeplechase atAintree on Saturday week cannot come quick enough for Mullins after Chelsea Harbour's last run over an inadequate trip at Leopardstown on March 2.

"The ground changed. It was very quick so our tactics changed and we couldn't do exactly what we wanted, but he came out of that last race in great order," said Mullins.

"He's bouncing and we're just waiting. I wish the Grand National had been the week after that, but it was five so we're hanging on. He's still in great nick and we're hoping for the best.

"There's plenty of positives. He won over three miles five at Punchestown with top weight and I was surprised how fresh he was when he came back in.
"He came out of it in good form, having jumped very well. Davy (Russell) was right pleased with him and there were no problems on that score. He's going to be a fresh horse going into the National and they have struck up a good partnership.

"The two of them know each other which is important especially for the first few fences in theNational. Point Barrow went at the first last year.

"I'm just biding my time and doing my best to get the horse there in good nick and we'll take the glory after, if we get it," he told At The Races.

Chelsea Harbour is a best-priced 25-1 for the Aintree showpiece. - willhillradio.com

I had my first big priced winner PAPILLION @ 33/1 in the 2000 Grand National which was tipped by Pricewise and I read that the column also found the winners in both 2006 & 2007 Nationals, so that is good enough for me!!

Nick Mordin has a system for picking the winner of the National so I read, and it has come up with the selections below.

There may be 1 or 2 other qualifiers added in the future but at the moment a suggested betting plan to win 100 points on the race is:

SLIM PICKINGS 5 pts WIN @ 20/1

CORNISH REBEL 1 pts WIN @ 100/1

JOACCI 1.5 pts WIN @ 66/1

JOES EDGE 3 pts WIN @ 33/1

PARSONS LEGACY 3 pts WIN @ 33/1

POINT BARROW 5 pts WIN @ 20/1

TOTAL STAKE - 18.5 points

VICTOR CHANDLER