Seven of the last ten winners have been aged four or five and again it could pay to concentrate on the younger horses that are on the upgrade. The four and five year olds make up less than half the field which makes things easier and if you've got an opinion on the draw you could narrow things down further. Many of the experts are favouring a low berth if that helps. I'm not so sure where the bias will be if indeed there is one, but Little White Lie could be well-drawn in stall six if the boffins are right. Ger Lyons is earning a reputation when he sends one over to England (think Elletelle) and his four-year-old went close in a handicap at Epsom on Oaks Day last year. He blew the cobwebs away at Dundalk earlier in the month, handles soft ground and could have more to offer. Prince Forever and Yeaman's Hall could be the main dangers.
Blythe Knight: Winner of this race in 2006 (when run at Redcar) and comes here on the back of Champion Hurdle flop. Hard to fancy off top weight.
Fajr: Has won two from seven starts on the all-weather this winter so is fit and well. He looks better on a faster surface though.
Prince Forever: Only seen once as a three-year-old due to leg injury. That was high class form though and this lightly-raced type can go well if handling the soft ground.
Clipperdown: Not seen since his American days over a year ago so plenty high enough in the weights with lots to take on trust, namely fitness and ability.
Mine: Twice beaten in this race before and though it hasn't been wise to rule out this old-timer in the past, all his recent wins have come on fast ground over a furlong shorter.
European Dream: Has showed little spark in Dubai on last two starts but had run well over hurdles in the winter when proving his liking for soft ground. Quite sharp over this trip in these conditions and shouldn't be ruled out.
Raptor: Yet to record a win in England but has run well in defeat in decent contests. His handicap mark hasn't dropped as a consequence though and it might have to before he gets his head in front.
Classic Port: Lightly-raced, handles sofft and had a blow on the all-weather last week. Couldn't be confident this mark is beyond him and a lively outsider.
Rio Riva: 3lbs higher than when last successful in identical conditions (one mile, soft) at Newcastle last June. Goes well fresh (second in this race on reappearance last year) and another with claims.
Azarole: Hasn't won for two years and not certain to appreciate the conditions here.
Yeaman's Hall: Another lightly-raced sort who will appreciate the soft ground. Ran well in a Group Three at the Curragh last May over 10 furlongs. A testing mile could be his trip and with William Buick taking 3lbs off has a live chance. Drawn high.
Very Wise: Won this race last year when it was staged at Newcastle on good to soft ground and has won again since in Newmarket handicap. Flopped twice on all-weather this winter but not seen since November. Has gone well fresh in the past.
Little White Lie: Ger Lyons has brought him over to England once before when he was beaten by Vitznau at Epsom last summer. Has the benefit of a huge swing in the weights with that rival here and is drawn in six, the stall that has produced four of the last 17 winners.
Babodana: Slipping down the weights now but so he should after not winning for four years (last successful in 2004 renewal of this race). Should cope with the conditions but there are likely to be plenty better in this.
Annemasse: Won a decent handicap at Haydock last summer but that was on fast ground and the major issue here is if he will handle the softer conditions.
Vitznau: Likes to weave his way through big fields as he showed when just denied at Newmarket in October. Ground not a problem either, though this is his first try at the trip. Shapes as though he will get a mile.
Watamu: Beat subsequent winner of this race Very Wise when last seen on the racetrack a year ago. Chances strictly on the figures considering that performance but hasn't run over the distance for four years.
Fremen: Hard to fancy after three average runs in Dubai and normally does his winning after July.
Smokey Oakey: Appreciated the drop down to a mile in heavy conditions at Ayr in November. Up 9lbs here but not without a chance especially as he could well have strengthened up over the winter.
Dhaular Dhar: Campaigned mainly as a sprinter these days though does still contest the odd mile race - usually at Chester. Does seem to handle soft ground but not at this distance and is likely to be outstayed by many.
Escape Route: No great shakes in Dubai this winter and another who would prefer faster conditions.
Temple Place: Won at Chester last May but not seen since flopping at York later in the same month. Plenty to prove now back over a mile.
- SPORTINGLIFE.COM
LITTLE WHITE LIE - 2pts WIN @ 14/1
2pts WIN @ 5/1 - 1st home of those drawn 1-11.
Ger Lyons' frustration at being unable to get Ryan Moore to partner Little White Lie was tempered by the appointment of Richard Quinn, twice a Lincoln winner with Kuala Lipis (1997) and Right Wing (1999).
"I was disappointed Ryan Moore is going to Kempton, but we've a good replacement in Richard Quinn," said the County Meath trainer.
"If there's not a classy, unexposed horse in there we'd have a great chance.
"He literally does nothing at home but he has never let us down on the track. Whether he's good enough to win a Lincoln would surprise meas he's very exposed off his mark.
"He deserves his chance and the softer the ground the better so it's fingers crossed." - racingpost.com
SMOKEY OAKEY - 2pts WIN @ 14/1.
2pts WIN @ 7/2 - 1st home of those drawn 12-22.
22 MARCH
Cold start to Flat but Doncaster ground remains unchanged
by Tony Elves
DONCASTER clerk of the course David Williams was on Friday able to maintain the ground as good to soft, with good patches on the straight course.
Williams said: “On Thursday we were forecast 10-15mm of rain, but got only 3.5mm. We had a dry night and then a very windy day on Friday.
"We had 1-2mm of rain on Friday and I will leave the ground as good to soft, good in places on the straight course, and good to soft on the round course."
However, Williams warned: “There could be a little bit of snow and winter showers,and anything up to 5mm of rain on Saturday, with temperatures between 4-5C and predominately windy all day.
"There are isolated forecasts of snow, and we will have to wake up in the morning and see what we get as some areas may have none.”
The Met Office confirmed racegoers will have to wrap up for the opening of the Flat turf season and that there is a possibility of a covering of snow early on Saturday morning.
A spokesman said on Friday: "Doncaster is one of the high risk areas for a covering of snow. At the moment there is rain about, but that will turn to sleet and snow as we go through the night and there could be a couple of centimetres of snow.
"On Saturday it will be sunny, with wintry showers. Temperatures will be between 6-7C.”
- racingpost.com
2 March update
BetFred are offering a special High/Low draw bet on the Lincoln.
BETFRED
The Warrington-based firm has split the 22 runner field in two – giving punters the chance to collect if there is a draw bias on the day.
They are offering prices on two 'mini races' for those drawn 1-11 and 12-22, as well as each way terms of 1/5 odds a place 1,2,3.
"History has shown that the draw can play a huge part on the outcome of the race, particularly if the going is on the soft side," said Betfred spokesman Dave Metcalf.
"Nothing is more annoying than backing your fancy and seeing it race clear only to discover that it is racing on the unfavoured side of the track and has no chance of winning the race outright as the group on the opposite side have a six length advantage.
"We therefore decided to iron out any bias that there may be, and give punters the chance of collecting if their fancy wins the race of those drawn on either side of the track.
"Our traders have priced up two races – for those drawn high and low – and backers will be paid out on what ever finishes in front in either grouping," added Metcalf.
Michael Jarvis' Prince Forever (drawn 10) is 3/1 favourite of those drawn 1-11, with Escape Route (drawn 4), Rio Riva (drawn 5) and Little White Lie (drawn 6) all on 5/1.
Of those drawn 12-22, the list is headed by Mark Tompkins' Smokey Oakey (drawn 12) at 7/2, with Yeaman's Hall (drawn 21) a 4/1 shot, and last year's winner Very Wise (drawn 17) on 6/1.
The top 2 in the market are not certain to get into the race.
Favorite ZAAHID - NR.
2nd fav LANG SHINING - NR.
Update 20 March 2008
Doncaster going survives weather forecast
by Jon Lees
FEARS that heavy rain would force Doncaster to change the going for the William Hill Lincoln were allayed on Thursday.
The course was bracing itself for stormy weather but only a fraction of the rain forecast to hit the track during the week materialised and officials reported the going unchanged.
Clerk of the course David Williams reported conditions as good to soft, good in places on the straight course, and though more rain is forecast before the William Hill Lincoln, it is not expected in substantial quantities.
“We were predicted to get 10-15 millimetres today but we have actually had 3.5mm in total so I have left the going unchanged,” said Williams on Thursday.
“We will see what tomorrow brings, but we are forecast 3.5-5mm.”
The outlook is for the weather to get colder with the Met Office forecasting more wintry conditions, with snow possible in the area tonight.
A Met Office spokesman said: “It is generally going to be miserable. Showers will follow overnight and will persist into tomorrow, becoming more wintry withsnow likely on higher ground, which could deliver a centimetre or two at low levels. It will melt away on Saturday morning, but there will still be fairly wintry showers into the afternoon.” - racingpost.com
Newsflash 20 March 2008
ZAAHID, 11-2 favourite with the sponsors, has missed the cut for the William Hill Lincoln at Doncaster on Saturday.
The last horse to make the field in the Lincoln is Temple Place.
The top 22 horses all stood their ground. In a race where the draw has historically played a key part, this year's renewal offers more questions than ever as it will be the first running of the race since the track's redevelopment.
Ger Lyons' gambled-on Little White Lie was the first runner drawn out of the hat by William Hill's David Hood and was allocated stall number six by Kate Hills of Arena Leisure.
Richard Quinn rides the sole Irish challenger Little White Lie while Ryan Moore, who was listed as the rider in the overnight cards, heads to Kempton to ride November Handicap winner Malt Or Mash in the Listed Dragonfly Stakes.
In the past, low numbers were favoured for the Lincoln when the ground was on the soft side, and clerk of the course David Williams is expecting some cut in the ground.
"The track is very even from one side to the other and at the Leger meeting jockeys weren't frightened to come down the middle," said Williams.
"The course itself hasn't changed but the new drainage system we installed means the ground is far more consistent now than it was in the past.
"It is good to soft at the moment. We are forecast 12 millimetres on Thursday, with a further four on Friday and another three on Saturday.
"I'd anticipate the ground will be good to soft on the straight but maybe soft, heavy in places on the round course. We could get anything up to 17mm but it does drain very well."
Others who have been drawn low include 2006 winner Blythe Knight who is in stall three for John Quinn and will carry top-weight after his unplaced effort in last week's Champion Hurdle.
John Gosden's Escape Route (4) and Julie Camacho's Rio Riva (5) along with Gay Kelleway's Fajr (7) also have single-figure draws.
Donald McCain's Temple Place (8) took the final place in the 22-runner line-up and could provide the trainer with the first leg of an historic double as he will saddle Grand National favourite Cloudy Lane two weeks later.
Among those drawn high include last year's fourth Raptor (19), last year's Spring Mile winner European Dream (20) and the winner 12 months ago, Very Wise (17).
Barry Hills' Zaahid will instead run in the William Hill Spring Mile but Lang Shining has not been declared for the consolation race.
Mark Tompkins - "Whatever happens I think they will come down the middle and we will know our fate when we see the Spring Mile run, so we'll have a good look at that and see what the draw does.
"Smokey Oakey will love the ground, the more rain the better for him and I think we'll get it but you never know.
"He sluiced in at Ayr last year on heavy ground and he looks a picture so we'll hope for the best," he told At The Races. - ATTHERACES.COM
No comments:
Post a Comment