RICHARD HILLS

Richard Hills mentioned by a someone as him being his biggest earner since the introduction of BETFAIR has got me intrigued.

I am always looking for an EDGE to find winners, so will follow RH's progress this season and try and idnentify a winning strategy.

Some of the info I have found is detailed below and not neccessarily 100% accurate:

Richy is interesting when one looks at his strike rate by course over the last 5 years:
Beverley 31%
Bath 24%
Brighton 22%
Chester 21%
Ayr 20%
Epsom 19%

Although Richard is 0/7 this year, his strike rate was 17% (73/420) in 2007 and 15% (265/1786) over the last 5 years - not the worst return, by any means.

He returned 31% winners for Sir M. Stoute in 2007 and 25% for the same trainer over the last 5 years. His strike rate for the bigger yards (Johnston, Jarvis, Dunlop, etc) was generally 13% or better over the same periods.

Richy is interesting when one looks at his strike rate by course over the last 5 years:

Beverley 31%
Bath 24%
Brighton 22%
Chester 21%
Ayr 20%
Epsom 19%

Contrast this with his record at some of the game's 'elite' tracks (Ascot, Doncaster, Newbury, Newmarket, York) where his return is only around 10-12%.

It's interesting to recall that Kieren could be masterly at some tracks (Newmarket, Pontefract) but rode several stinkers at others (Goodwood and Sandown come to mind).

The lessons of the above are clear - concentrate on certain tracks/trainers when following Richard. For good measure, note that he is at his best when front-running, but frequently finds trouble when called on to come from behind or ride a more tactical race.

The lad will always come in for stick because of the high profile horses he rides, some of which, by the nature of the game, will disappoint. He is in truth though, little better or little worse than the majority of middle-ranking riders. As ever, bet when the odds are in your favour!

2008 LINCOLN

BBBOOOMMM!

31 pts profit on the race!!

Get in there!!!


SMOKEY OAKEY - 2pts WIN @ 14/1.

SMOKEY OAKEY - 2pts WIN @ 7/2 to finish 1st of those drawn 12-22.

Smokey burns off Lincoln rivals
22 Mar 2008

Smokey Oakey came fast and late to deny Blythe Knight in the William Hill Lincoln at Doncaster.

The four-year-old, trained at Newmarket by Yorkshireman Mark Tompkins, got up in the final 100 yards in the hands of Jimmy Quinn to win by a length and a quarter.

Blythe Knight finished well clear of the others on the far side and was a game second. The 10-1 winner's stablemate Babodana was a length back in third, with Rio Riva fourth.

A delighted Quinn told Channel 4 Racing: "The plan was to hold him up and come late. He won on his second run last year and that was down to his speed."

Tompkins said: "He's a nice horse and he loves to get his toe in. Because we've won the Lincoln before we know what sort of horse you need and all spring we have thought he was a likely type.

"I just told Jimmy not to hit the front too soon though because that is what he did at Ayr on him over 10 furlongs last year.

"Babodana has run a stormer and he's not far off winning. To be honest I was watching him more than the other one and I just think he hit the front too soon."

The winner is owned by Dame Judi Dench and Tompkins added: "Dame Judi is in Scotland but she's watching and she'll be very pleased. She takes a real interest and is a very keen owner. It's a great result for everyone in the yard because it has been a long winter."

Blythe Knight's trainer, John Quinn, said: "He's run a great race but I wouldn't be human if I wasn't disappointed." - attheraces.com

2008 AINTREE MEETING

Festival winners can create dilemma for Aintree players


by James Pyman

IF the Cheltenham Festival has whetted your appetite for high quality jumps racing, the good news is that Aintree is only two weeks away because the gap between Cheltenham and the Grand National meeting is just three weeks.

The Aintree fixture seems to get bigger and better every year, and one of the reasons behind its rise in popularity is that the types of races staged across the three days have been increasingly falling into line with those that we see at Cheltenham.

And that means there are more suitable targets for horses who have performed well at the festival, which has led to greater cohesion between the two meetings with more horses who raced at Prestbury Park heading to Aintree.

However, Aintree's sharp, flat track with its lush racing surface and epic home straight, presents more of a speed test than Cheltenham's undulations, although the difference can be overplayed as Cheltenham also suits horses who travel, while they are both left-handed.

The Grand National will always be Aintree's trump card, but what also makes the meeting so special is the series of rematches between those horses who a matter of weeks earlier were locked in battle up the lung-bursting hill at Cheltenham.

Cheltenham winners have proved that they are at the top of their respective divisions so, when putting their reputations on the line at Aintree, are usually at the top of the market, and the dilemma exchange punters face is whether a hard race at Cheltenham coupled with a change of track will be enough to stop them confirming theirsuperiority.

This is illustrated by the performances of Katchit and Inglis Drever at both meetings last season. Suffering a hangover from Cheltenham was less of a worry 12 months ago when the gap between Cheltenham and Aintree was four weeks, and Katchit, having proved he was the top juvenile hurdler by winning the Triumph by nine lengths, dispelled any doubts about his suitability to the course by justifying odds of evens with a four-length defeat of Punjabi in the John Smith's Anniversary 4-Y-O Novices' Hurdle.

Inglis Drever was sent off at 7-2 for the John Smith's Liverpool Hurdle on the back of his win in the World Hurdle, but the switch to a track that places greater emphasis on speed proved his undoing as he finished third behind Mighty Man and Black Jack Ketchum, both of whom he had beaten at Cheltenham.

Let's start by looking at how winners at the festival have fared at Aintree. The table shows that, since 1996, their overall record is 19 wins from 76 runs, so while you would have made a loss of £18.31 backing festival winners blind, their record suggests that sealing a prestigious across-the-meetings double is not an insurmountable task.

Even in those years when the fixtures were just a fortnight apart there were cases of horses winning at both meetings and 53 per cent of Cheltenham Festival winners finished in the first three at Aintree, while the gap this year is three weeks and following Cheltenham festival winners in those years when the gap was three weeks would have resulted in only a small loss of -£5.51 to a £1 stake.

From a trading perspective, more money is invariably traded on those horses at the top of the market and, interestingly, the so-called bankers of the meeting, festival winners who started at 5-2or shorter, have performed pretty well with ten winners from 24 runners.

It's the backers, not the layers, who would have come out on top most often, as backing them all to a £1 level stake would have returned a £17.40 profit.

Unfortunately it's too early to know which festival winners will be heading for Aintree, although three who could go that route and would probably start at 5-2 or shorter for their likely targets are Inglis Drever (Liverpool Hurdle), Albertas Run (Mildmay Novices' Chase) and Tidal Bay (Maghull Novices' Chase).

Inglis Drever's reverse last year is a big worry for his fans, particularly if Kasbah Bliss, who Inglis Drever wore down in the closing stages at Cheltenham, turns up as he may be able to outspeed Inglis Drever at Aintree. That leaves Albertas Run and Tidal Bay as more reliable bankers.

The four-year-old hurdle has been a happy hunting ground for Triumph Hurdle winners since it was upgraded to Grade 1 status – so the Triumph scorers no longer have to carry a penalty – as the double has been achieved in the last two seasons, but this year's Triumph hero Celestial Halo looks set to miss Aintree.

However, festival winners haven't performed as well in handicaps. Since 1996, the recordof festival handicap winners at Aintree is just three winners from 24 runners, so I'll be a layer of any winners from festival handicaps who start at skinny prices. - RACINGPOST.COM

2008 LINCOLN

Seven of the last ten winners have been aged four or five and again it could pay to concentrate on the younger horses that are on the upgrade. The four and five year olds make up less than half the field which makes things easier and if you've got an opinion on the draw you could narrow things down further. Many of the experts are favouring a low berth if that helps. I'm not so sure where the bias will be if indeed there is one, but Little White Lie could be well-drawn in stall six if the boffins are right. Ger Lyons is earning a reputation when he sends one over to England (think Elletelle) and his four-year-old went close in a handicap at Epsom on Oaks Day last year. He blew the cobwebs away at Dundalk earlier in the month, handles soft ground and could have more to offer. Prince Forever and Yeaman's Hall could be the main dangers.

Blythe Knight: Winner of this race in 2006 (when run at Redcar) and comes here on the back of Champion Hurdle flop. Hard to fancy off top weight.

Fajr: Has won two from seven starts on the all-weather this winter so is fit and well. He looks better on a faster surface though.

Prince Forever: Only seen once as a three-year-old due to leg injury. That was high class form though and this lightly-raced type can go well if handling the soft ground.

Clipperdown: Not seen since his American days over a year ago so plenty high enough in the weights with lots to take on trust, namely fitness and ability.

Mine: Twice beaten in this race before and though it hasn't been wise to rule out this old-timer in the past, all his recent wins have come on fast ground over a furlong shorter.

European Dream: Has showed little spark in Dubai on last two starts but had run well over hurdles in the winter when proving his liking for soft ground. Quite sharp over this trip in these conditions and shouldn't be ruled out.

Raptor: Yet to record a win in England but has run well in defeat in decent contests. His handicap mark hasn't dropped as a consequence though and it might have to before he gets his head in front.

Classic Port: Lightly-raced, handles sofft and had a blow on the all-weather last week. Couldn't be confident this mark is beyond him and a lively outsider.

Rio Riva: 3lbs higher than when last successful in identical conditions (one mile, soft) at Newcastle last June. Goes well fresh (second in this race on reappearance last year) and another with claims.

Azarole: Hasn't won for two years and not certain to appreciate the conditions here.

Yeaman's Hall: Another lightly-raced sort who will appreciate the soft ground. Ran well in a Group Three at the Curragh last May over 10 furlongs. A testing mile could be his trip and with William Buick taking 3lbs off has a live chance. Drawn high.

Very Wise: Won this race last year when it was staged at Newcastle on good to soft ground and has won again since in Newmarket handicap. Flopped twice on all-weather this winter but not seen since November. Has gone well fresh in the past.

Little White Lie: Ger Lyons has brought him over to England once before when he was beaten by Vitznau at Epsom last summer. Has the benefit of a huge swing in the weights with that rival here and is drawn in six, the stall that has produced four of the last 17 winners.

Babodana: Slipping down the weights now but so he should after not winning for four years (last successful in 2004 renewal of this race). Should cope with the conditions but there are likely to be plenty better in this.

Annemasse: Won a decent handicap at Haydock last summer but that was on fast ground and the major issue here is if he will handle the softer conditions.

Vitznau: Likes to weave his way through big fields as he showed when just denied at Newmarket in October. Ground not a problem either, though this is his first try at the trip. Shapes as though he will get a mile.

Watamu: Beat subsequent winner of this race Very Wise when last seen on the racetrack a year ago. Chances strictly on the figures considering that performance but hasn't run over the distance for four years.

Fremen: Hard to fancy after three average runs in Dubai and normally does his winning after July.

Smokey Oakey: Appreciated the drop down to a mile in heavy conditions at Ayr in November. Up 9lbs here but not without a chance especially as he could well have strengthened up over the winter.

Dhaular Dhar: Campaigned mainly as a sprinter these days though does still contest the odd mile race - usually at Chester. Does seem to handle soft ground but not at this distance and is likely to be outstayed by many.

Escape Route: No great shakes in Dubai this winter and another who would prefer faster conditions.

Temple Place: Won at Chester last May but not seen since flopping at York later in the same month. Plenty to prove now back over a mile.

- SPORTINGLIFE.COM



LITTLE WHITE LIE - 2pts WIN @ 14/1
2pts WIN @ 5/1 - 1st home of those drawn 1-11.

Ger Lyons' frustration at being unable to get Ryan Moore to partner Little White Lie was tempered by the appointment of Richard Quinn, twice a Lincoln winner with Kuala Lipis (1997) and Right Wing (1999).

"I was disappointed Ryan Moore is going to Kempton, but we've a good replacement in Richard Quinn," said the County Meath trainer.

"If there's not a classy, unexposed horse in there we'd have a great chance.

"He literally does nothing at home but he has never let us down on the track. Whether he's good enough to win a Lincoln would surprise meas he's very exposed off his mark.

"He deserves his chance and the softer the ground the better so it's fingers crossed." - racingpost.com


SMOKEY OAKEY - 2pts WIN @ 14/1.
2pts WIN @ 7/2 - 1st home of those drawn 12-22.


22 MARCH
Cold start to Flat but Doncaster ground remains unchanged

by Tony Elves

DONCASTER clerk of the course David Williams was on Friday able to maintain the ground as good to soft, with good patches on the straight course.

Williams said: “On Thursday we were forecast 10-15mm of rain, but got only 3.5mm. We had a dry night and then a very windy day on Friday.

"We had 1-2mm of rain on Friday and I will leave the ground as good to soft, good in places on the straight course, and good to soft on the round course."

However, Williams warned: “There could be a little bit of snow and winter showers,and anything up to 5mm of rain on Saturday, with temperatures between 4-5C and predominately windy all day.

"There are isolated forecasts of snow, and we will have to wake up in the morning and see what we get as some areas may have none.”

The Met Office confirmed racegoers will have to wrap up for the opening of the Flat turf season and that there is a possibility of a covering of snow early on Saturday morning.

A spokesman said on Friday: "Doncaster is one of the high risk areas for a covering of snow. At the moment there is rain about, but that will turn to sleet and snow as we go through the night and there could be a couple of centimetres of snow.

"On Saturday it will be sunny, with wintry showers. Temperatures will be between 6-7C.”

- racingpost.com

2 March update

BetFred are offering a special High/Low draw bet on the Lincoln.

BETFRED



The Warrington-based firm has split the 22 runner field in two – giving punters the chance to collect if there is a draw bias on the day.

They are offering prices on two 'mini races' for those drawn 1-11 and 12-22, as well as each way terms of 1/5 odds a place 1,2,3.

"History has shown that the draw can play a huge part on the outcome of the race, particularly if the going is on the soft side," said Betfred spokesman Dave Metcalf.

"Nothing is more annoying than backing your fancy and seeing it race clear only to discover that it is racing on the unfavoured side of the track and has no chance of winning the race outright as the group on the opposite side have a six length advantage.

"We therefore decided to iron out any bias that there may be, and give punters the chance of collecting if their fancy wins the race of those drawn on either side of the track.

"Our traders have priced up two races – for those drawn high and low – and backers will be paid out on what ever finishes in front in either grouping," added Metcalf.

Michael Jarvis' Prince Forever (drawn 10) is 3/1 favourite of those drawn 1-11, with Escape Route (drawn 4), Rio Riva (drawn 5) and Little White Lie (drawn 6) all on 5/1.

Of those drawn 12-22, the list is headed by Mark Tompkins' Smokey Oakey (drawn 12) at 7/2, with Yeaman's Hall (drawn 21) a 4/1 shot, and last year's winner Very Wise (drawn 17) on 6/1.



The top 2 in the market are not certain to get into the race.

Favorite ZAAHID - NR.

2nd fav LANG SHINING - NR.

Update 20 March 2008
Doncaster going survives weather forecast

by Jon Lees

FEARS that heavy rain would force Doncaster to change the going for the William Hill Lincoln were allayed on Thursday.

The course was bracing itself for stormy weather but only a fraction of the rain forecast to hit the track during the week materialised and officials reported the going unchanged.

Clerk of the course David Williams reported conditions as good to soft, good in places on the straight course, and though more rain is forecast before the William Hill Lincoln, it is not expected in substantial quantities.

“We were predicted to get 10-15 millimetres today but we have actually had 3.5mm in total so I have left the going unchanged,” said Williams on Thursday.

“We will see what tomorrow brings, but we are forecast 3.5-5mm.”

The outlook is for the weather to get colder with the Met Office forecasting more wintry conditions, with snow possible in the area tonight.

A Met Office spokesman said: “It is generally going to be miserable. Showers will follow overnight and will persist into tomorrow, becoming more wintry withsnow likely on higher ground, which could deliver a centimetre or two at low levels. It will melt away on Saturday morning, but there will still be fairly wintry showers into the afternoon.” - racingpost.com


Newsflash 20 March 2008

ZAAHID, 11-2 favourite with the sponsors, has missed the cut for the William Hill Lincoln at Doncaster on Saturday.

The last horse to make the field in the Lincoln is Temple Place.

The top 22 horses all stood their ground. In a race where the draw has historically played a key part, this year's renewal offers more questions than ever as it will be the first running of the race since the track's redevelopment.

Ger Lyons' gambled-on Little White Lie was the first runner drawn out of the hat by William Hill's David Hood and was allocated stall number six by Kate Hills of Arena Leisure.

Richard Quinn rides the sole Irish challenger Little White Lie while Ryan Moore, who was listed as the rider in the overnight cards, heads to Kempton to ride November Handicap winner Malt Or Mash in the Listed Dragonfly Stakes.

In the past, low numbers were favoured for the Lincoln when the ground was on the soft side, and clerk of the course David Williams is expecting some cut in the ground.

"The track is very even from one side to the other and at the Leger meeting jockeys weren't frightened to come down the middle," said Williams.

"The course itself hasn't changed but the new drainage system we installed means the ground is far more consistent now than it was in the past.

"It is good to soft at the moment. We are forecast 12 millimetres on Thursday, with a further four on Friday and another three on Saturday.

"I'd anticipate the ground will be good to soft on the straight but maybe soft, heavy in places on the round course. We could get anything up to 17mm but it does drain very well."

Others who have been drawn low include 2006 winner Blythe Knight who is in stall three for John Quinn and will carry top-weight after his unplaced effort in last week's Champion Hurdle.

John Gosden's Escape Route (4) and Julie Camacho's Rio Riva (5) along with Gay Kelleway's Fajr (7) also have single-figure draws.

Donald McCain's Temple Place (8) took the final place in the 22-runner line-up and could provide the trainer with the first leg of an historic double as he will saddle Grand National favourite Cloudy Lane two weeks later.

Among those drawn high include last year's fourth Raptor (19), last year's Spring Mile winner European Dream (20) and the winner 12 months ago, Very Wise (17).

Barry Hills' Zaahid will instead run in the William Hill Spring Mile but Lang Shining has not been declared for the consolation race.


Mark Tompkins - "Whatever happens I think they will come down the middle and we will know our fate when we see the Spring Mile run, so we'll have a good look at that and see what the draw does.

"Smokey Oakey will love the ground, the more rain the better for him and I think we'll get it but you never know.

"He sluiced in at Ayr last year on heavy ground and he looks a picture so we'll hope for the best," he told At The Races. - ATTHERACES.COM

GRAND NATIONAL 2008

SNOWY MORNING 2pts WIN @ 20/1 - Trainer W. Mullins.

MISTER POINTMENT 2pts WIN @ 14/1 - Trainer P. Nicholls.

AP McCoy to win the race 5pts WIN @ 14/1

CLOUDY BAY 2pts WIN @ 25/1.

CHELSEA HARBOUR 1pt WIN @ 50/1

BLACK APALACHI - 1pt WIN @ 66/1


2nd April - A Jockeys Birdseye view of the big race

How to ride the Grand National

Richard Dunwoody

If there is one race I miss lining up for, it is the Grand National. I have so many great memories of Aintree and have I've enjoyed such good fortune there, having won the big one twice – with West Tip in 1986 and Miinnehoma in 1994 – and been in the money on five other occasions.

It is the one race that really gets the adrenalin flowing, the one race that is embellished in the consciousness of the once-a-year punter and, as far as jump racing goes, it rightly deserves its tag of the 'world's greatest race'.

The build-up: On the morning of the National I'd sit on my mount, just to get the feel of him and to stretch his legs. Then if weight allowed, I'd have a bit of breakfast. If not, it would be a sauna.

Then I'd walk the course, going through the colours of the horses, mentally making notes of those you wanted to follow and avoid, and run through the race in your mind.

When the time comes, you are not normally tired down by strict orders, just perhaps told to “go out and enjoy it”. It is a race where you have to allow for every eventuality.

The start: When you parade in front of the crowds, there are always a few wise-cracks, especially if you've been beaten on one in the previous race. I liked to show the horse the first fence and then most jockeys would wish each other luck – not something you'd normally do! The start can be held up because a horse may spread a plate, but then suddenly the starter would call us into line. I'd like to jump off smartly and once the tapes go up, you'd invariably ignore the stewards, who tell you not to go flat out across the Melling Road.

First fence: I'd always want to jump the fence in the middle. At about 10 to 15 strides off it, I'd get the horse back on to his hocks and on the bridle in order to get him focused on the fence. The drop is not too bad. The second fence is a good bit bigger than the first and there often a few fallers at it, but the third is a very big open ditch and the first real test. While the fourth and fifth fences are straightforward, you are thinking ahead because Becher's Brook looms.

Becher's Brook (6th): I fell twice there – with Brown Windsor and West Tip – and Bigsun made such a bad mistake, his race was all but over. I'd always try to pull out and jump it down the middle, because the fence is on an angle with a huge drop towards the inner rail, and in years past it always felt like you were jumping into the crowd. It was the one fence anywhere that made me feel I'd have to simply take my chances. It is a real test.

Foinavon (7th): Is the smallest fence bar the water, but those horses have had a fright at Becher's, may not want to take off and they can make bad mistakes. It is a tricky fence and taken on the turn.

Canal Turn (8th): There is a sharp 90-degree bend and if you are on the inside, you can find yourself in trouble. It is a big fence and it helps if you can have a horse like West Tip who could turn on a sixpence. You try to apex the corner, as you would do in motor racing.

Valentines (9th): It has a drop, but it is a reasonable fence and when you get over the Canal Turn, you really start to concentrate on really getting your horse balanced and into a rhythm.

The Chair (15th): It is a huge fence and the most narrow on the course. The first time I saw it, I remember thinking, 'Oh s***, how does a horse jump something like that!' It is imperative you find enough room and not take off too far from it. There is a massive ditch in front of it and unlike any other fences, the ground rises on the other side, so you land at a higher level than you take off from.

The Water Jump (16th): My grandfather, Dick Thrale, fell at this fence in the 1920's and was perhaps one of the last people to do so. When you pass the stands you have a chat to those around you and it is time for a breather, but it is also where you can make up a bit of ground, depending on how you are going. You still have to keep your wits about you. In 1994, Jamie Osborne was on Garrison Savannah and we were having a chat going past the stands. We crossed the Melling Road, going towards the first fence on the second circuit, and a loose horse came and wiped him out!

Second circuit: Now the race is really on. There are perhaps only eight or nine who are in with a real chance, especially if the ground is softer.

Becher's Brook (22nd): After almost three miles, horses may be getting tired, which makes this fence all the more tricky. Get a right hold of your horse's head, go in at an angle and get him on to his near fore. I'd also want a lead off something.

Canal Turn (24th): Loose horses may be a problem, yet you'd try and jump the fence as you did first time round. This is where you really start thinking of it as a race, rather than simply surviving. There are now six fences to go and unless you are badly off the bridle, you want to conserve your energy.

Run in: It is 494 yards from the last fence to the line. There is a lot of open space when you land over the last and horses may begin to idle and hang. You have to be so aware that there is only one winning post; conserve as much energy as possible and not put the gun to the horse's head too soon. When you reach the elbow, you'll then really start to dig deep and ask your horse for everything. There is a running rail that should help keep the horse straight.

The line: Getting there in front is an unbelievable feeling. With West Tip it was sheer jubilation, with Miinnehoma it was a touch of relief, because I felt I'd gone too soon and almost thrown the race away – I'd got the shock of my life when Just So came up to my girth at the elbow, but we had more than enough to get there. There's no better feeling than winning a National.
31 March

Grand National Course Guide
BETWEEN them they have won the Grand National no less than six times. Now read the views of legendary trainer Ginger McCain along with jockeys Tony Dobbin and Graham Lee about the fearsome Aintree fences.


In an exclusive interview with Gordon Brown, the trio talk their way round the most famous steeplechase circuit of them all.


FIRST FENCE (1 & 17)

Lee: “Not a big fence but it can cause problems because of the speed we can be doing as there is such a long run from the starting area and everyone is so keyed up. Horses tend to over-jump and just pitch on their heads on landing — second time round it’s not so much of a bother.

Dobbin: “It can be a bit of a cavalry charge down to the first. Because the fences are so different to what we find on a park course horses tend to jump up in the air. Coupled with them going so fast - a lot of the fallers at the first are usually coming down too steep and landing on their heads.

McCain: “I would never dream of giving a jockey instructions but I like them to hunt round for the first circuit and get a horse nice and relaxed and into a rhythm. If possible try and keep him out of the hurly-burly of the race which is not an easy thing to do.



THIRD FENCE (3 & 19)

Lee: “This is a absolutely massive, humungous fence! When you get up and over that you know you’ve passed the first real test. It tends to come quick as well as we are galloping along at a fair rate of knots.




Dobbin: “This is as high as the Chair although the spread over the ditch isn’t as wide. It’s a very upright and big fence and we are still going at a quicker-than-normal pace coming into it. It’s not as narrow as the Chair but you are still looking for a bit of daylight on the inner or outside. Once we get over it you feel a sense of relief.

McCain: “Everyone talks about the Chair but believe me this is some obstacle and you have to be very careful. It’s equally as big as the Chair and they meet it much earlier on before they have warmed up properly.



BECHER’S BROOK (6& 22)

Lee: “It’s just a normal looking fence as you ride down it and nowhere near as daunting as they tell me it used to be, thank God. It’s a fence I always aim to go wide on the approach and take it on the outside. If you try to take it straight you look as if you are jumping into a crowd and it still catches a few out — there were loads of fallers last year. Four years ago when I won on Amberleigh House we were still about last coming to Becher’s second time round.

Dobbin: “Obviously since it was modified the drop on the inner isn’t nearly as bad as it used to be, but it remains a lot steeper on the inside than anywhere else. I try and get a nice jump across because, like Foinavon and the Canal Turn, it’s on a little bit of an angle. It can depend where you are in the race what you can do and you are also keeping an eye open for fallers on the landing side.


FOINAVON (7 & 23)

Lee: “It’s quite hard to explain how this rides as you’ve just got over Becher’s and then face what is one of the smallest fences on the course. When you sail over Becher’s you are waiting for the ground — at this fence the ground comes up to you.

Dobbin: “It’s a lot smaller than Becher’s but you still have to be careful and I again try and get my angles right. When I won in 1997 on Lord Gyllene I made most of the running and I could jump across exactly where I wanted to.


CANAL TURN (8 & 24)

Lee: “This is a very important fence and you have to get your angles right. That’s why, unless I was in front, I never go down the inner as you can run into trouble big time. If you're riding something in behind the leaders you can suddenly find ten horses wheel in on top of you if you’re on the inside — I’d rather be on a horse coming wheeling in that be a victim of that happening to me.

Dobbin: “If you get this one right, as with the previous two, you will have saved yourself a nice few lengths which can be crucial round Aintree. The big problems arise here if you are surrounded by other horses as you have to try and second-guess what they are about to do! Even more than Becher’s and Foinavon you have to cut that corner as much as you dare.

McCain: “Coming round here second time you want to be creeping into the race and aiming for the first eight or ten. But you don’t want to be rushing as you’re still a long way from home. You’re still looking at meeting the fences on a stride and keeping the horse balanced. A lot of horses are getting tired by this time - even crossing the Melling Road there are still five-furlongs to go - a lot of horses are committed to early.



THE CHAIR (15)

Lee: “After the Canal Turn everything is grand until the Chair comes into view — it’s massive and rides well. The ground just rises a little as you come towards it but as I said, the fence jumps well for its size.




Dobbin: “It’s a big fence but it’s more of a spread as well. It’s narrow and you need plenty of speed to get over it — we’re all delighted it only needs to be jumped once. Getting some room and light for your horse is very important. As it’s so wide a horse needs to see what it’s doing and there is always plenty of jockeying for position on the run down to the Chair.

McCain: “Hopefully your horse will have switched off a little bit and will have had a good clear view of the fences first time round. Passing the stands a lot of the bad horses (and some of the good ones) have gone so the field is starting to thin out a bit. About now you want to start thinking about easing into the race more.




ELBOW & RUN-IN

Lee: “Things can change a lot between the last fence and the line but you’d have to be awfully unlucky to get round and then fall at the last. I always like to steer a wide berth from the last and that effectively almost cuts out the elbow — I try and take a direct route right to the line.

Dobbin: “It all depends on what type of horse you are riding where you want to be landing over the last. I’ve ridden a few winners over the big fences and I always try to keep my mount together until we get to the elbow. If at all possible I try and resist the temptation to pick my stick up until I get to that point. Usually a horse will find a bit more for you in those cases and at that stage of the race it can be the difference of winning and losing

McCain: “Old Red Rum caught Crisp on the run to the line and he also won having been in front over the last. Two years ago Graham gave Amberleigh House an absolutely brilliant ride. He made sure he didn’t get there too quickly and as soon as Clan Royal started to wander about he was there to take full advantage. If you have got that little bit of gas left jumping the last, you can pick off a lot of horses if you can summon up another gear.


To watch last years race cut & paste the following link into your browser.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/player/sol/newsid_6550000/newsid_6556300/6556361.stm?bw=bb&mp=wm


28 March - Portfolio update

As we move into the week before the Grand National we want to take out some insurance on our betting portfolio to ensure a decent profit should the weather/ conditions go against us.


BLACK APALACHI, a revitalised stayer with some very useful handicap form to his name, looks the perfect each-way foil to our longtime ante-post win selection Cloudy Lane in the John Smith's Grand National.

Available at a massive 66-1 at the time of writing, the Dessie Hughes-trained 9yo appears nailed on to make the cut as he sits 49th in the weights on 10st 8lb and therefore needs only nine above him to drop out.

Having got in before the rush on Cloudy Lane (25-1) was advised at the end of December, well over a month before the weights were published, we can now do likewise with Black Apalachi, whose odds are likely to shorten in the run-up to the race because he looks to have a fair bit going for him despite not having won for more than two years.

A close inspection of the gelding's form reveals that he lost his way under the tutelage of Philip Rothwell - for whom he won the 2005 Paddy Power Chase over Christmas on only his fourth start over fences - but there have been definite signs of a revival since he joined Hughes' yard for the start of this season, highlighted by three performances around the turn of the year.

A close-up fourth in the latest renewal of the Paddy Power at Leopardstown showed he was getting his act together again and, following a similar placing in the Pierse Chase at the same venue, he put up his best display for some time when runner-up in the Thyestes at Gowran Park.

The first-time blinkers that worked to such good effect that day were left off for his only subsequent run at Leopardstown on March 2, but the 2m5f trip was too short anyway, especially on goodish ground. In the circumstances, he did not run at all badly to finish 26 lengths behind the winner Well Tutored and within striking distance of fellow Aintree contenders Chelsea Harbour and Slim Pickings (3rd in last year's National).

Hughes was obviously using that race as a sharpener and the key to Black Apalachi's chance will be the step up to a marathon trip because he looked a strong stayer when keeping on after trouble in running to finish sixth to You're Special in the Kim Muir two years ago.

His next two outings were over 3m5f, including in the Irish National, but he failed to run within two stone of his best form on either occasion so it's highly unlikely lack of stamina was to blame. There were glimpses of his old form in his last season with Rothwell, but nothing as concrete as the three good handicap runs he's put in for Hughes this term.

This is not some old plodder we're talking about either - Black Apalachi was a Grade 2-winning novice over hurdles just three years ago and finished a 20-length eighth to No Refuge in the Royal and Sun Alliance that season.

The horse's prominent racing style is a plus as it will increase his chances of avoiding trouble and it's not hard to see him popping away near the front because he's never fallen or unseated, over hurdles as well as in his 17 races over fences. He's also adaptable ground wise, having shown a decent level of form on a variety of surfaces, and he certainly won't be inconvenienced if the heavens open, which might be a worry where Cloudy Lane is concerned.

Donald McCain's highly progressive 8yo remains the most likely winner of the race as, in terms of handicapping, he's thrown in having improved significantly again since the weights were framed.

McCain has long maintained that the gelding is better on better ground, so a slog in the mud wouldn't be ideal even though he's got winning form in testing conditions. He's such a quick, economic jumper however that I don't see stamina being an issue unless the ground is very soft, like in Earth Summit's year. - attheraces.com



27 March - WEATHER UPDATE
Unsettled start to National week

by Turia Tellwright

THE Met Office on Wednesday painted an unsettled picture in the build-up to the National meeting, which begins next Thursday.

“The temperature will rise to about 8C tomorrow afternoon, with the rain starting at about midnight until dawn on Friday,” a Met Office spokeswoman said on Wednesday.

“It's an unsettled picture with showers right through until the middle of next week but with temperatures rising, there is no sign of frost.”

Clerk of the course Andrew Tulloch said: “We've had about 3mm of rain so far today and we'll probably get more tonight, going into Thursday and Friday.”

“I would be a lot happier if it would just get a bit warmer but it should get up to about 10 or 11C at the weekend which is good news as we could just do with it warming up a bit. I'd also be happy with a bit more rain.”

The going remained unchanged and was on Wednesday officially good on the Mildmay course and good, good to soft in places, on the National course.

- racingpost.co.uk



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I have decided the way to approach the Grand National is to come up with a portfolio of four or five horses with the right profile and to back them Ante-post at big odds.

I backed a couple earlier this year when I read that their high profile trainers had decided to target their charges at the race.

SNOWY MORNING 2 pts WIN @ 20/1 - Trainer W. Mullins.

27 MARCH 2008
WILLIE MULLINS on Wednesday reported Hedgehunter and Snowy Morning, his two Grand National candidates, “on track” for the Aintree spectacular a week on Saturday when Hedgehunter, winner of the race in 2005, will be making his fifth consecutive appearance in the John Smith's-sponsored event.

Mullins said: “It's all systems go with our two National horses. They are in good form and we will school either over the weekend or early next week when Ruby gets back from his skiing holiday in France. I'm not sure yet which of them Ruby will ride.”

Runner-up in 2006 and ninth behind Silver Birch a year ago, Hedgehunter finished three and a half lengths in front of stablemate Snowy Morning when they ran second and third respectively behind Afistfullofdollars in the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse last month.

- attheraces.com



MISTER POINTMENT 2 pts WIN @ 14/1 - Trainer P. Nicholls.

27 March 2008
Mr Pointment will lead Paul Nicholls' assault as the champion trainer seeks his first National triumph.

"We have three definite runners in the Grand National at this stage," said Nicholls.

"Mr Pointment will run and Sam Thomas definitely rides having won the Becher Chase on him over the National fences.

"Liam Heard rides Royal Auclair and Cornish Sett is a definite runner, although I have not finalised jockey plans for him. Opera Mundi could line up if it came up soft, while Turko is a possible but has other options." - racongpost.co.uk

I also backed A. P McCoy to win the race 5 pts WIN @ 14/1, which now seems a trifle ambitious at the odds!!

Wednesday 26/03
National cash for Castle

King Johns Castle is proving popular with punters ahead of the John Smith’s Grand National on Saturday week. Arthur Moore’s nine-year-old, who could form part of JP McManus’ three-pronged assault on the Aintree showpiece, is now 16/1 from 25s with Leeds-based bookmakers William Hill.

Champion jockey Tony McCoy is JP’s retained rider but he has yet to decide which horse he will partner in the world’s greatest steeplechase. ‘AP’ could also be seen on board Butler’s Cabin (Jonjo O’Neill) or L’Ami (Francois Doumen).

Victory in the Liverpool marathon has so far evaded the legendary owner/punter, but could King Johns Castle be the one to carry his famous green and gold hoops home next weekend? - racingpost.co.uk


“Butler's Cabin seems in good form and he does jump and stay. He hasn't been to Aintree before, but I think he is big enough to take to the fences and, if he does, he has a live chance. It is his head that could be a bigger problem than his height! Good ground would be important; if it was soft and slow he might give up. He ran well first time out at Leicester but was very disappointing on Saturday. He did collapse after his races at Cheltenham and Fairyhouse and that might have got to him and he might be thinking about it. We have had him checked out and he seems fine and we'll have to give him another run before Aintree. His weight looks okay".

- Jonjo O'Neill, trainer of Butler's Cabin (11st), Bob Hall (10st 8lb), Drombeag (10st 3lb), Risk Accessor (10st 1lb) and Innox (9st 13lb)- racingpost.co.uk


Additionally I invested in the Pricewise selections based on the success of the column in the race over the years.

CLOUDY BAY 2 pts WIN @ 25/1.

“I'd be happy with Cloudy Lane's weight – getting them in the race is the most important thing. It would be nice if Beef Or Salmon were to turn up, as we would have a cracking weight then. Idle Talk's weight gives him more of a chance than last year. He's not certain to go, but if we do decide to run, it seems a sensible rating. He ran a very nice race at Doncaster the other day, so no complaints. Bannister Lane might struggle to get in off that weight and he will go for what was the Eider at Newcastle. He will have other years.”

- Donald McCain, trainer of Cloudy Lane (10st 8lb), Idle Talk (10st 6lb) and Bannister Lane (10st) - racingpost.co.uk


CHELSEA HARBOUR 1 pt WIN @ 50/1

“At least he is under 11st, I suppose, and we'll have no trouble in getting a jockey. I'll have to have a chat to the owner and we'll have a good talk about it,but he might never have that weight again. Stamina isn't an issue with him, but the race is a long way off yet.” - Tom Mullins, trainer of Chelsea Harbour (10st 13lb)- racingpost.co.uk

27 March 2008
TOM Mullins is counting down the days to saddling Chelsea Harbour in the John Smith's Grand National.

The world's most famous steeplechase atAintree on Saturday week cannot come quick enough for Mullins after Chelsea Harbour's last run over an inadequate trip at Leopardstown on March 2.

"The ground changed. It was very quick so our tactics changed and we couldn't do exactly what we wanted, but he came out of that last race in great order," said Mullins.

"He's bouncing and we're just waiting. I wish the Grand National had been the week after that, but it was five so we're hanging on. He's still in great nick and we're hoping for the best.

"There's plenty of positives. He won over three miles five at Punchestown with top weight and I was surprised how fresh he was when he came back in.
"He came out of it in good form, having jumped very well. Davy (Russell) was right pleased with him and there were no problems on that score. He's going to be a fresh horse going into the National and they have struck up a good partnership.

"The two of them know each other which is important especially for the first few fences in theNational. Point Barrow went at the first last year.

"I'm just biding my time and doing my best to get the horse there in good nick and we'll take the glory after, if we get it," he told At The Races.

Chelsea Harbour is a best-priced 25-1 for the Aintree showpiece. - willhillradio.com

I had my first big priced winner PAPILLION @ 33/1 in the 2000 Grand National which was tipped by Pricewise and I read that the column also found the winners in both 2006 & 2007 Nationals, so that is good enough for me!!


Nick Mordin has a system for picking the winner of the National so I read, and it has come up with the selections below.

There may be 1 or 2 other qualifiers added in the future but at the moment a suggested betting plan to win 100 points on the race is:


SLIM PICKINGS 5 pts WIN @ 20/1

CORNISH REBEL 1 pts WIN @ 100/1

JOACCI 1.5 pts WIN @ 66/1

JOES EDGE 3 pts WIN @ 33/1

PARSONS LEGACY 3 pts WIN @ 33/1

POINT BARROW 5 pts WIN @ 20/1

TOTAL STAKE - 18.5 points

VICTOR CHANDLER



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NON-RUNNERS

CHARACTER BUILDING - Out for the season

CHELTENHAM 2008 - Review

Fate of the Favorites
ONLY 2 favorites won from 25 races this year,
INGLIS DREVER @ 11/8
and ALBERTAS RUN @ 4/1
resulting in a £1762 loss to £100 level stakes over the meeting!!

Previous Festival Winners
We highlighted previous winners as a very strong tip, so how did our previous winners perform in 2008?

Well, from 12 runners we had 3 winners, 2 horses finishing second resulting in a profit of £362.50 to level £100 stakes.

Champion Hurdle Katchit - 1st @ 9/1
Sublimity - 4th
Ebaziyan - 12th

World Hurdle Inglis Drever 1st @ 11/8
Wichita Lineman - 9th
Hardy Eustace - 12th

Champion Chase
Voy Per Ustedes - 2nd
Newmill - 5th

Gold Cup
Denman 2007 - 1st @ 9/4
Kauto Star 2007 - 2nd

Ryanair Chase
L'Antartique 2007 - 7th

David Nicholson Mares race
Gaspara - 4th


Cheltenham Tips - Last Time Out Winners

Captain Cee Bee - lto 1st
Tidal Bay - lto 2nd
Katchit - lto 1st
An Accordion - lto 1st
Garde Champetre - lto 1st
Crack Away Jack - lto 1st
Old Benny - lto 2nd
Albertas Run - lto 1st
Finger Onthe Pulse - 2nd
Master Minded - lto 1st
Our Vic - lto 2nd
Inglis Drever - lto 1st
Mister McGoldrick - lto 5th
Ballyfitz - lto 1st
High Chimes - lto pu
Cousin Vinny - lto 1st
Whiteoak - lto 1st
Fiveforthree - lto 1st
Naiad Du Misselot - lto 1st
Celestial Halo - lto 2nd
Nenuphar Collonges - lto 2nd
Denman - lto 1st
Amicelli - lto pu
Tiger Cry - lto 6th
Silver Jaro - lto 3rd

14 of this years winners were also lto winners.
6 of this years winners finished 2nd lto.

I did read a statistic that if you had backed every LTO winner at the festival in 2008 you would have realised a profit of around £3600 at level £100 stakes, which is quite phenomenal!!


Cheltenham Tips - Champion Horses Have Recent Form!
With the big championship races (The Gold Cup, World Hurdle, Champion Hurdle and Queen Mother) you can rule out horses which didn’t finish in the first three on their latest start.

This statistic certainly held good in 2008.

DENMAN - 1st LTO
INGLIS DREVER - 1st LTO
KATCHIT - 1st LTO
MASTER MINDED - 1st LTO


Cheltenham Tips - Age of Championship Winners
Out of the last 32 Championship winners at the Cheltenham festival, 28 were aged between seven and nine, with only 1 9yo World hurdle winner in the last 20 years.

A bit of a turn up this year with,
5yo KATCHIT winning the Champion hurdle,
another 5yo MASTER MINDED winning the Champion Chase,
and a 9yo INGLIS DREVER winning the World hurdle.


Sporting Index Cross Country Handicap
Enda Bolger horse/s are the ones to follow in this race.

GARDE CHAMPETRE - 1ST @ 4/1
FRENEYS WELL - 4TH @ 25/1
HEADS ON THE GROUND - 9TH @ 11/2

ALL TRAINED BY ENDA BOLGER


National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup
J P McManus and trainer Jonjo O'Neill have both won this race three times before.

NO WINNER THIS YEAR.


Handicap Races
Tony Martin has a knack of turning up with well handicapped horses in the UK and anything he runs should be given consideration.

PSYCHO looked all over the winner of the County Hurdle but his challenge was left too late by his jockey and PSYCHO finished 2nd full of running and closing on the winner on the run in.

Another well backed Tony Martin horse LEG SPINNER was withdrawn on the morning of the race due to unsuitable ground.

Martin had another runner 2 runners ROBIN DU BOIS and PATSY that were unplaced.

Ferdy Murphy likes to target staying chase races at the festival and has managed to win 2 races at each festival at big prices in the last couple of years.

William Hill Hcp Chase - NEW ALCO 2nd @ 10/1
Kim Muir - NOIR ET VERT 4th @ 11/1 (4 places)
JOES EDGE 10th @ 14/1
Coral Cup - NAIAD DU MISSELOT 1st @ 7/1

From 4 runners Ferdy had 1 winner, showing a profit of £400 to level £100 stakes.

Oddly enough Ferdy’s winner came in a Handicap hurdle race, I say oddly because Ferdy is really known for his chasing team, especially staying chasers.


Northern Trainers
2 winners for Howard-Johnson, INGLIS DREVER & TIDAL BAY, and 1 for Ferdy Murphy, NAIAD DU MISSELOT, was the contribution from northern trainers in 2008.

Paul Nicholls team
Paul was Champion trainer again this year with 3 winners DENMAN, MASTER MINDED & CELESTIAL HALO, and a number of horses being placed. He also trained the first 3 home in the Gold Cup a fantastic achievement.


Noel Meades team
CORSKEAGH ROYALE - 2nd in the Bumper was the only horse to make the frame from the Noel Meade yard.


Willie Mullins team
Willy Mullins had 2 winners at this years festival from his team.

Ballymore Properties Nov Hdl - FIVEFORTHREE 1st @ 7/1
Champion Bumper - COUSIN VINNIE 1st @ 12/1

CHELTENHAM 2008 - TipBits

One of the best Cheltenham tips is to pay close attention to horses who have performed well at past Cheltenham festivals. History does repeat itself at Cheltenham with over 20 dual winners since 1995.

From 1995 to 2005 there were 21 dual Festival winners with a further 28 winners having been placed at the meeting in a previous year and 27 winners had been placed at more than one festival!

Previous Festival Winners
As this is such a strong tip we have listed previous Cheltenham Festival winners who could take part in this years festival. We have listed them by the races they are entered in this year (or likely to be entered in) and alongside show the race or races they have won. Note that several horses could be entered in more than one race.

Champion Hurdle
Ebaziyan 2007 Supreme Novice Hurdle
Hardy Eustace 2003 Sun Alliance Hurdle, 2004 + 2005 Champion Hurdle
Katchit 2007 Triumph Hurdle
Sublimity 2007 Champion Hurdle

World Hurdle
Black Jack Ketchum 2006 Brit Insurance Novice Hurdle
Gaspara 2007 Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle
Hardy Eustace 2003 Sun Alliance Hurdle, 2004 + 2005 Champion Hurdle
Inglis Drever 2005 + 2007 World Hurdle
Wichita Lineman 2007 Brit Insurance Novice Hurdle

Champion Chase
Andreas 2007 Grand Annual
Contraband 2005 Arkle
My Way De Solzen 2007 Arkle, 2006 World Hurdle
Newmill 2006 Champion Chase
Voy Per Ustedes 2007 Champion Chase, 2006 Arkle

Gold Cup
Contraband 2005 Arkle
Denman 2007 Sun Alliance Chase
Fundamentalist 2004 Sun Alliance Hurdle
Kauto Star 2007 Gold Cup
Kicking King 2005 Gold Cup
L'Antartique 2007 Jewson Novices Chase
Monkerhostin 2004 Coral Cup
Rule Supreme 2004 Sun Alliance Chase
Star De Mohaison 2006 Sun Alliance Chase

Ryanair Chase
Contraband 2005 Arkle
Fundamentalist 2004 Sun Alliance Hurdle
L'Antartique 2007 Jewson Novices Chase
My Way De Solzen 2007 Arkle, 2006 World Hurdle
Newmill 2006 Champion Chase
Sky's The Limit 2006 Coral Cup
Sporazene 2004 County Hurdle
Star De Mohaison 2006 Sun Alliance Chase

Cheltenham Tips - Last Time Out Winners
It makes sense that if a horse is good enough to win one of the most competitive races on the national hunt calendar then they should have been able to win their latest race which wouldnt have been as strongly contested.

This tip is especially helpful in the festival handicaps. A winner of a recent handicap also indicates that the handicapper may not have the horse properly rated. Many handicap winners go on to win again next time out.

Of the last 64 handicaps at the festival, 27 have been won by horses who were successful on their previous start. Thats over 42%! From around 20% of the runners so a great Cheltenham tip!

At last years festival 12 of the 24 winners had won their previous race. Now thats a Cheltenham tip you cant ignore!

Cheltenham Tips - Champion Horses Have Recent Form!
With the big championship races (The Gold Cup, World Hurdle, Champion Hurdle and Queen Mother) you can rule out horses which didnt finish in the first three on their latest start. 31 of the last 32 winners of these races all ran in the last three on their most recent run.

Cheltenham Tips - Age of Championship Winners
Out of the last 32 Championship winners at the Cheltenham festival, 28 were aged between seven and nine. A great tip which will rule out a lot of runners. - cheltenham-betting.co.uk

Cheltenham - Ground For Concern?

Everyone knows Cheltenham drains very well and it is often the case that the Cheltenham Festival ground is on the firm side come March. Only a week before the Festival last year the ground contained heavy patches yet by Gold Cup day the ground was back on the firm side.

The last time the ground was officially heavy was almost 20 years ago (1989) so it seems for the near future mudlarks need not apply when it comes to the Festival. If you are backing a soft ground horse for the Festival then now is the time to start your rain dance.

After one of the wettest summers ever we have had one of the driest winters and it is going to take plenty of rain in the coming weeks to have anything softer than good to soft ground.

Where does that leave the punters? If the ground is genuinely good then it is time to back the speedier horses and the flat bred horses, who are used to firmer ground. If you are backing a soft ground horse for the Gold Cup then it is going to need to pour down the night before Gold Cup day and even that might not be enough.

So, the moral of the story, assume the ground will be good to soft at absolute worse and if the rain doesn’t come expect the softer ground horses to be very much outpaced. - blog.cheltenham-betting.co.uk/

Top Jockey 2007
Choc Thornton was top jockey at the meeting, riding 3 winners for Alan King and 1 for Paul Nicholls.

Ruby Walsh rode 3 winners all for Paul Nicholls.

Tony McCoy had just the one winner for JonJo O'Neill.

Top Jockey 2006
Ruby Walsh was top jockey with 3 winners.

Tony McCoy also had 3 winners.

Choc Thornton rode 2 winners.

Mick Fitzgerald had 2 winners for Nicky Henderson.

Top Trainer 2007
Paul Nicholls was top trainer with 4 winners, Alan King was 2nd with 3 winners.

Top Trainer 2006
Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson had 3 winners each, and Alan King managed 2 winners.

Sporting Index Cross Country Handicap
Enda Bolger horse/s are the ones to follow in this race.

Queen Mother Champion Chase 2007
Voy Per Ustedes became the first six year old to win the Champion Chase for 34 years!

National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup
J P McManus and trainer Jonjo O'Neill have both won this race three times before, and saddled 33/1 winner BUTLERS CABIN in 2007.

Handicap Races
Tony Martin has a knack of turning up with well handicapped horses in the UK and anything he runs should be given consideration.

Ferdy Murphy likes to target staying chase races at the festival and has managed to win 2 races at each festival at big prices in the last couple of years.
2007 William Hill Hcp Chase
2007 Jewson Nov Hcp Chase
2006 Kim Muir
2006 National Hunt Chase

Number of Irish Winners Betting
At least 10,000 racegoers travel over from Ireland for the annual pilgrimage and they havent been disapointed with 24 of the last 72 winners coming from the Emerald Isle! In 2006 the Irish returned home with their biggest ever success with 10 winners!

Each year there is a battle between the Irish and British to see which land can train the most Cheltenham Festival winners. The bookmakers will be betting on the number of Irish winners in 2008.

On 20/02/08, Irish Bookmaker Paddy Power were offering the following odds on the number of festival winners trained in Ireland.

Under 3.5 9/2, 4 5/1, 5 4/1, 6 4/1, 7 5/1, over 7.5 3/1

Irish victories in 2007
Champion hurdle - SUBLIMITY (JOHN CARR)
Champion Bumper - CORK ALL STAR (JESSICA HARRINGTON)
Cross Country race - HEADS ON THE GROUND (ENDA BOLGER)
Supreme Novices Hurdle - EBAZIYAN (WILLY MULLINS)
V. O'Brien County Hurdle - PEDROBOB (A. MULLINS).

Cheltenham Festival Novelty and Fun BetsIrish bookmaker Paddy Power are the specialists in this area and often come up with lots of fun novelty bets. Last year they were betting on how many pints of Guinness would be consumed during the four days of the festival.

How many pints of Guinness will be sold at the raccourse?
170,000-179,999 - 5/2
180,000-189,999 - 11/4
190,999- 199,999 - 5/1
200,000 or more 9/4

In 2006 between 190,000 and 199,999 were sold, but the Irish did get a lot of winners!! - cheltenham-betting.co.uk

FREE Bets

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CHELTENHAM 2008 - One Hit Wonders - Northern Trainers

One Hit Wonders - Northern Trainers

06 Mar 2008

By Gordon Brown

The North is well-represented at this year's Cheltenham Festival and not just by Ferdy Murphy and Howard Johnson. Up and coming Malton trainer John Quinn has high hopes for Leslingtaylor and Blythe Knight while anything Nicky Richards sends down from Greystoke is always worth a second look.

I also have a sneaking suspicion that Len Lungo fancies his sole raider while little known livery yard owner Alistair Brown expects a big run from a representative from his base in the borders. Read on and all will be revealed!


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TUESDAY

2.35 Arkle Trophy Novices' Chase
LESLINGTAYLOR
John Quinn

Winner of last year's Swinton Hurdle and unbeaten in both completed starts over fences. Still going well enough when falling four out in unsuitable heavy ground at Cheltenham. Claimed notable scalp of Tidal Bay at Doncaster in February and will appeal to many as a value-for-money price.
"He deserves to take his chance and if I thought he was a no-hoper he'd be stopping at home. He's very professional and I just hope they go a blistering pace as he'll settle like a dream. Good ground should be fine as he hated the heavy and couldn't jump out of it when he fell at Cheltenham in November. He's a very sound horse and I couldn't be happier with him at the minute.

3.15 Champion Hurdle
BLYTHE KNIGHT
John Quinn

Had been competing in Group 2 & 3 contests on the Flat prior to flopping when fancied for the Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle in early December. Won Grade 2 novices' hurdle at Aintree last spring and was more like his old self when chasing home Katchit in Kingwell Hurdle recently.
"He was over the top when in the Fighting Fifth, probably because he'd been kept busy on the Flat. We gave him a rest and he bounced back at Wincanton. I'd say he'll improve a fair bit for that and the fast and furious pace of the Champion will suit him down to the ground."



WEDNESDAY

2.00 Ballymore Properties Novices' Hurdle
MIDDLETON DENE
Nicky Richards

Has earned a crack at the big time after some solid efforts this season including when winning over course and distance in October. Goes on good or good to soft ground and is still on the upgrade. Could produce a moment dreams are made of for Rose Davidson on a horse owned my her father and mother.

"He's a lovely uncomplicated horse and Rose gets on very well with him. He'll go chasing eventually but he's kept his form going from the summer right through. We've been running him at around two and a half miles but he'll stay further."

4.00 Coral Cup (Handicap Hurdle)
BEDLAM BOY
Nicky Richards

Won in maiden and novice handicap company on soft ground this time last year and was creditable third to Tidal Bay in Grade 2 event at Aintree.
"He's a horse that used to live on his nerves but the penny is dropping and I think he's still improving. He's got the old fashioned pedigree of a chaser and that will be his game one day. He'll stay three miles so the Cheltenham trip shouldn't pose any problems and a drop of rain wouldn't go amiss."



THURSDAY

3.15 Ladbrokes World Hurdle
CHIEF DAN GEORGE
Jimmy Moffatt

Claimed the scalp of Wichita Lineman in Grade 1 at Aintree last April but has taken time to find his feet this time round. Tried in visor and found a little improvement for cheekpieces last two runs at Haydock.
"We were especially pleased with his fourth to Inglis Drever in the Cleeve Hurdle as he stayed on all the way to the line. He's in good nick at the moment and a little bit of easing in the ground would help us. He's seems to come to life in the spring so it's approaching his time of year and we're going back to Aintree after the Festival."

5.20 Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle)
GUNNER JACK
Nicky Richards

Made an encouraging return from injury when a cracking second at Haydock last month. Stays well and highly-regarded by connections following earlier wins in Carlisle novice hurdle and Ayr bumper.
"He picked up a little injury after just one run last season which was disappointing as we reckon he's an exciting prospect. He's still inexperienced and is sticking to hurdles for now but what a chaser he'll be one day."

WILD CANE RIDGE
Len Lungo

A fine looking type who was second over this course and distance in a qualifier back in December. Plenty of winning form over hurdles and fences and stays extremely well. Has won going right-handed but last 16 races have all been on anti-clockwise circuits.

"Our plan has always been to go for the Pertemps and then have a crack at the Scottish National in April. He's always been very athletic and goes on any ground unless it gets too fast. He's been put up 10lb for winning over hurdles at Ayr in January and the blinkers seem to have sharpened him up a wee bit."



FRIDAY

4.00 Christie's Foxhunter Chase
NATIAN
Alistair Brown

Only cost 2,000gns as a three-year-old and has been a real moneyspinner for his small Scottish borders' connections. Gained his third course success when making all at Kelso recently and should come on for that first run in nearly a year.
"He likes to make it and gets on well with Mark Ellwood. I'm sure he'll give a good account of himself at Cheltenham and he's shown us he's fully deserved his chance at the big time."

4.40 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase
CALATAGAN
Malcolm Jefferson

Was on the retreat when falling in valuable chase at Doncaster last month and better judge on win in Castleford Chase at Wetherby over Christmas. All best form at around two miles and clearly doesn't get much further.
"He's in good order but, to be honest, he's handicapped up to the hilt. He's won three times at Wetherby but he's won elsewhere too and seems to be at his best going left-handed. He's been a grand servant over hurdles and fences and he's a horse you don't need to do very much with at home."

5.45 Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle
BORDER TALE
Jimmy Moffatt

A tough little type that has rarely been out of the money in competitive company since last spring. Has form on good to firm and good to soft ground and tends to do most of his racing at around two miles.
"The plan is to go for the Imperial Cup and then the County Hurdle, a race I won in 1995 on Home Counties, who was trained by my father. This is my favourite horse in the yard as he always tries so hard. We've ridden him more prominently recently and he's not been disgraced when third and second at Newcastle and Musselburgh."

BYWELL BEAU
George Charlton

A bit of a Kelso specialist as he's gained all four career wins at the borders track. Jumps to his right over hurdles and, more markedly so, over fences in two uninspiring runs in novice chasing this term. Likes to blaze from the front and is one of the class acts likely to be contesting this fiendishly difficult getting out stakes. "His tendency to go right stems from a problem with one of his testicles being stuck high up inside him and a muscle was probably damaged in its removal when he was gelded. He loves it at Kelso but he's got some engine and operates elsewhere as well - it's just that all his winning has been at Kelso. He makes it and often goes clear but he also manages to settle nicely in front as well. He's never been to Cheltenham before and we thought he was well worth trying in a competitive race like this."

KINGS QUAY
John Quinn

Scrambled home in Grade 2 hurdle at Wincanton in November and was below-form in Tote Gold Trophy at Newbury on softer ground. Had little sharpener on Flat at Wolverhampton recently.
"He's a horse that never wins by that far and he needs to be dropped in. Good ground should suit him at Cheltenham and he'll hopefully be played nice and late off a strong gallop."


PEVENSEY
John Quinn

Needs to put behind poor efforts on last two starts when soft ground was probably his undoing. Won Duke of Edinburgh Stakes at Royal Ascot last summer and both hurdling wins have been achieved on sharp tracks (Musselburgh and Catterick).
"He's another of our that I switch between the Flat and hurlding as I think it keeps them alert mentally. He's won on soft ground but is much better suited by good and is a straight-forward little horse."

PREMIER DANE
Nicky Richards

Disappointed in last May's Swinton Hurdle but has earlier ran fine races to finish third in the Scottish Champion Hurdle and County Hurdle. Another solid effort last month was third in competitive big handicap at Doncaster.
"He's tough and loves the hurly burly of these big races. He's got plenty of pace and needs a bit of time between his races so he's had a nice gap since that run at Donny He was over the top by the time the Swinton came round last year."

- attheraces.com

CHELTENHAM 2008 - Noel Meades Team

Noel Meade Stable Tour

6 Mar 2008

A MONTH ago you wouldn't have put serious money on Noel Meade having a runner at Cheltenham let alone a team of horses including fancied contenders such as Harchibald and Muirhead.

The perennial Irish champion trainer was seemingly on course for another record-breaking season as Christmas approached but then the train hit the buffers with an almighty bang and the winners dried up completely.

Happily the green shoots of recovery started to poke through in the second half of February and recent results appear to confirm that Meade is back on track in time for the Festival.

"There was nothing we could really put our finger on and say that was to blame," he recalls. "For whatever reason the horses simply couldn't perform and it began to get to me when it went on for so long, particularly as we weren't sure what we were dealing with.

"All that seems behind us now though. They're working and running much better, which is reflected in the results. I'm never confident going into Cheltenham because it's the hardest place in the world to get winners, but I hope and think we'll be competitive."


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TUESDAY
2.00 Anglo Irish Bank Supreme Novices' Hurdle
"MUIRHEAD is unbeaten and has worked well enough recently to take his chance. I would have liked to have given him another run after the Royal Bond for experience but that wasn't possible after my horses went wrong. It's not been easy with him because he's a light horse and a poor eater, but so far it hasn't affected his performances on the racecourse. JERED has been left in at the six-day stage but JP (McManus) has others in the race and it may well be that he'll wait for Fairyhouse, though he's also got an entry in the County Hurdle."

3.15 Smurfit Kappa Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy
"HARCHIBALD is in great shape after his all-weather win at Dundalk and appears in the same sort of form as he was when chasing home Hardy Eustace three years ago. He's a serious contender provided they don't put too much water on or there's a lot of rain. Everyone's got an opinion about this fella but the most important thing with him is the ground. The quicker it is the better he is - he's just not the same horse on slower ground. JAZZ MESSENGER would also be suited by good ground and looks a big price for a dual Grade 1 winner. He ran well when second in the mud at Gowran last time and has come on for that."

5.20 Fred Winter Juvenile Novices' Handicap Hurdle
"RIGHT OR WRONG would have a squeak if he gets in purely because he beat Beau Michael, the best Irish four-year-old novice, at Fairyhouse in December. Like a lot of mine he's disappointed since but if he comes back to his best he would have to be respected off a low weight. He jumps well and is rated in the mid-80s on the Flat, so has a fair bit of of ability."



WEDNESDAY
4.00 Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle
"This race, rather than the County, is the target for ORBIT O'GOLD, who had good form in staying handicaps on the Flat last autumn, notably when second in the Irish Cesarewitch. That proves he goes well in a big-field, competitive race and he was a classy novice over hurdles last season, beating De Valira in a Grade 2 at Punchestown. The trip was a bit sharp for him on decent ground in the Supreme Novices last year and I wouldn't read too much into his disappointing effort in the Greatwood because it was a foul day and lots of horses ran below form. Hasn't run since but is fresh and well."

5.20 Weatherbys Champion Bumper
"CORSKEAGH ROYALE has won his last two starts in progressive style and I was really taken with the way he beat a Grade 2 field at Navan. Nina (Carberry) will ride him and he won't lack for vocal support as he's owned by a club with 132 members who have chartered a plane to come over. He has a big chance, especially if the ground is on the soft side. Paul (Carberry) will ride COTTAGE OAK, who is unbeaten in two starts and very useful in his own right. He quickens up really well on good ground, so hopefully we've got all angles covered!"



THURSDAY
3.15 Ladbrokes World Hurdle
"AITMATOV will run provided the ground is not too soft, though we have left him in the Champion Hurdle as a precaution against the weather. He was in very good form in the first half of the season before disappointing in the AIG, but obviously wasn't right that day. As a result he probably just needed the run at Navan last month, which was a good effort considering the ground was also against him. He's got 2m speed, stays 2m5f well but will need decent ground if he's to get further at championship level."



FRIDAY
2.00 JCB Triumph Hurdle
"SILVERHAND performed a minor miracle to win an incident-packed race on his debut and would have needed his run behind Beau Michael at Fairyhouse last month as a setback had kept him off since the autumn. Unraced on the Flat, he's got more potential than most juvenile hurdlers and is a definite contender here because he's strong and jumps quickly. Sure to improve as he gets more experience."

2.35 Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle
"GEM DALY looked like being one of my better novices before the horses started going wrong, so you can forget his poor run at Leopardstown last time. Winner of his first two starts, he showed his class by finishing a clear second to Trafford Lad in a Grade 1 at Navan in December. We weren't going to send him to Cheltenham, but changed our minds after his last piece of work. PARSONS PISTOL has won three from four and beat Uncle Junior, a good horse of Willie Mullins's, on the step up to Graded company at Cork last time. Stays well and deserves to take his chance, though he's more of a chasing prospect having won a point-to-point as a four-year-old."

3.15 Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup
"AFISTFULLOFDOLLARS has been working well since beating Hedgehunter and Snowy Morning in the Bobbyjo Chase, so will almost certainly be supplemented. He's won three of his four starts over fences and is already up to a mark of 157, so why not let him take his chance? We still don't know how good he is and you could argue that he beat Snowy Morning as easily as Denman did in last year's Sun Alliance. With a profile like his, we would rather have a crack at the big one than carry top weight in a handicap."

5.45 Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle
JERED - see Tuesday.

- attheraces.com

CHELTENHAM 2008 - Willie Mullins Team

Willie Mullins Stable Tour

06 Mar 2008

NO Irish trainer commands more respect at Cheltenham than Willie Mullins who notched his tenth success at the meeting when Ebaziyan sprung a 40-1 surprise in the curtain-raising Supreme Novices Hurdle last year.

While it may have been a shock to many, attheraces.com followers were certainly not in the dark as the County Carlow trainer had revealed on the Cheltenham microsite days in advance that the former Aga Khan-owned gelding had shown at home that he was "definitely Festival material".

Recent history suggests that there is a good chance at least one winner will emerge from the list below - Fiveforthree and Uncle Junior receive particularly strong mentions - as Mullins discusses his main contenders for this year's honours.

Punters itching to back the stable's horses should note that a final decision over running plans will not be made until as late as possible in some cases, so the safest policy is to follow the non-runner no-bet route.


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TUESDAY

2.00 Anglo Irish Bank Supreme Novices Hurdle
"FIVEFORTHREE would have a definite chance if we stick to our original plan and go for this but we do have the option of switching him to the Ballymore. I'm inclined to leave a decision until as late as possible and we'll see how both races are shaping up nearer the time. A high-class bumper horse last season, he was held up by a rib injury this autumn but was very impressive on his delayed hurdles debut at Fairyhouse last month. I thought it was a huge performance from a horse coming back from a layoff. He jumped well until lack of experience told at the last two and showed a fantastic turn of foot on the run-in. He's my best novice and should improve a lot for that experience."

2.35 Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase
"SCOTSIRISH looked a useful prospect when he beat Wins Now in January and I think he was still remembering his fall in the Baileys Irish Arkle when making a couple of mistakes in the Flyingbolt at Navan last time. He finished with such purpose there though that I'm expecting a more confident display at Cheltenham. He didn't jump as well as he can in his recent schooling session after racing at Leopardstown but we'll give him more practice at home and I'm hoping he might surprise a few people."

3.15 Smurfit Kappa Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy
"EBAZIYAN appears to have got fed up with racing on bad ground in Ireland but has to go for the Champion because he got within one-sixth of a second of Sublimity's time when winning the Supreme Novices. Conditions at Cheltenham clearly suit him and, like last year, he continues to show lots of class at home. He was never striding out properly in the AIG last time but hopefully he's a spring horse who has saved his best for the Festival again."




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WEDNESDAY

2.00 Ballymore Properties Novices Hurdle
FIVEFORTHREE - see Tuesday

2.35 Royal & Sun Alliance Chase
"POMME TIEPY is a possible as she stays very well and is a fantastically slick jumper but I'm not sure that running a five-year-old in this race is the right thing to do at this stage of her career, especially as the age allowance has been reduced from 10lb to 2lb. She's also in the Arkle, in which her jumping would be her main asset over the shorter trip, but she has been winning in soft ground and conditions are likely to be very different at Cheltenham. A terrific buy from France and unbeaten in four races for us, she would be kept for the Irish festivals if we don't bring her over."

4.00 Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle
"ALEXANDER TAIPAN is a horse we've still got high hopes for over fences and he could go back to Punchestown, where he won a decent novice handicap last spring. So far this season though we've kept him over hurdles and he's run better than his form figures might suggest in Graded races on his last two starts. He stayed on well over 2m5f behind Kazal and Aitmatov at Navan, so this race might suit him on decent ground. JAYO has Cheltenham experience, having finished eighth in the Fred Winter last year, and might improve for stepping up in trip, but he needs to as he's badly handicapped in England judged on his run in the Totesport Trophy. I'll study the weights and general running plans before deciding whether to let either horse take its chance."

5.20 Weatherbys Champion Bumper
"APT APPROACH looked a smart prospect when winning on his debut at Gowran and was impressive considering he doesn't light up the gallops at home. He worked after racing at Leopardstown the other day and Ruby was happy with him. DRIVE ON REGARDLESS galloped with him and needs plenty of work but, as his record suggests, he's getting better with each run. COUSIN VINNY shows plenty of gears at home and did well to win on his only start at Punchestown. Everything went wrong that day but his ability got him out of trouble. LILYWHITEDANCER is a horse who keeps his best for the track and it was always the plan to go straight to Cheltenham after he won easily on his debut at Gowran in December."



THURSDAY

5.20 Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle
"SHARE OPTION has been steadily progressive in staying handicaps this season and has had a break since running a bit flat at Leopardstown in January. He's a good, fun horse who won at Leopardstown over Christmas and will probably go for this race, though he's also in the Coral Cup and I'll make a decision after I've had a good look at the weights for both races."



FRIDAY
2.00 JCB Triumph Hurdle
"C'EST CA proved disappointing on the Flat for a horse who has always worked well but going jumping has been the making of him. He's won his last two starts over hurdles impressively and this was the race we had in mind for him after Fairyhouse, though he does have other entries at the meeting. He's got a classy pedigree, so quicker ground shouldn't unduly bother him."

2.35 Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle
"UNCLE JUNIOR is a very good, progressive stayer who has been kept fresh for Cheltenham as he loves decent ground. Conditions were softer than ideal when he failed by a short-head to complete a four-timer at Clonmel in December but that was still an excellent effort on his first run in Graded company and he'll continue to improve back on better ground. He needed the work more than my other horses at Leopardstown the other day, so I was pleased with what I saw. He wasn't a natural jumper to begin with but has improved markedly with experience and we expect him to run very well in a race we went close to winning with Black Harry (fell at the last when a clear second to hot favourite Wichita Lineman) last year."

5.45 Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle
"It's the right sort of race for VISO as a strongly-run 2m on good ground is ideal but he couldn't make the frame when we fancied him to go well in The Ladbroke at Ascot and is harshly handicapped in England on that evidence. We've freshened him up for a spring campaign but I'd need to be convinced he's at the top of his form to bring him over again."


- attheraces.com