At the moment, assumimg ground on the soft side, I am leaning towards,
SOLDIER OF FORTUNE with a saver on VISION D'ETAT.
SOLDIER OF FORTUNE has apparantly been trained for this race.
(Interview with K Fallon)
If the ground is on the soft side he will handle it better than the other runners.
If Johnny Murtagh rides the SOLDIER this should be taken as a positive, although Seamie Heffernan is no poor substitute having won a couple of Group 1's himself this season.
DUKE OF MARMALADE has had a busy season already and this MAY be a race too far!!
There is rain around in France and DUKE OF MARMALADE may not run, as he prefers Gd/Fst ground.
Some stats to digest.Twelve of the last seventeen runnings of the Arc were won by lightly raced, strongly fancied French trained three year olds.
A pointer to the winner of the ARC can be found in the Prix Niel, which has provided every one of the last eight 3yo winners.
While the last eight 3yo winners of the ARC all contested the Prix Niel, not all actually won that trial.
The 2008 Prix Neil was won by the Eric Libaud trained Vision D'etat No winner of the Prix Vermeille (Zarkava) has won the Arc in the same season since Three Troikas in 1979.
Horses above the age of five and fillies (Zarkava) do not have a great record in the race; nor do horses that have been peaked to take in mid Summer races such as the King George.
The draw is of crucial importance, with only one winner in the last fourteen years (Sakhee) racing from a stall number higher than nine. In the 2008 renewal the leading contenders are drawn as follows;
Soldier of Fortune - 9 ; Zarkava - 1; Kasmin - 12; Vision D'etat - 8; Getaway - 7; Duke of Marmalade - 14
