Recent Winners The longest race at the Festival is also probably the most difficult to predict. Not only is the trip an unknown for many of the competitors, but all horses are novices and have to be ridden by amateurs. Not surprisingly, there has been only one winning favourite in recent times.
On man worth following in the race, though, is Jonjo O’Neill. Incredibly he has trained four of the last six winners.
Key Trends 22 of the last 24 winners finished in the first 4 last time out.
No 6 year-old has won for 19 years and no successful 5 year-old for 30 years.
Jonjo O'Neill has won 5 renewals - including 4 of the last 6. - cheltenhamfestival.net
No selection at present, but there are some interesting stats in this race.
Cheltenham Tips - Champion Horses Have Recent Form! With the big championship races (The Gold Cup, World Hurdle, Champion Hurdle and Queen Mother) you can rule out horses which didnt finish in the first three on their latest start. 31 of the last 32 winners of these races all ran in the last three on their most recent run.
Cheltenham Tips - Age of Championship Winners Out of the last 32 Championship winners at the Cheltenham festival, 28 were aged between seven and nine. A great tip which will rule out a lot of runners.
Key RacesSix of the last seven winners of the Champion Chase have contested the Tingle Creek.
This season Twist Magic won the tingle creek by 3 lengths to Voy Per Ustedes. Voy Per Ustedes also finished runner up in 2006 before landing last years Queen Mother. - - cheltenham-betting.co.uk
TWIST MAGIC - Paul Nicholls long term fancy for the race. Has drifted in the market following defeat on testing ground early Feb. Probably needs good ground to be seen at his best.
MASTER MINDED - a bullish report from P. Nicholls earlier in the week (6 Feb) on ATR resulted in his price for the Champion Chase being slashed from 16/1 into 10/1.
MASTER MINDED subsequently beat VOY POR ESTUDES in a race on Saturday (9 Feb) and is now best priced around 5/2 fav. for the Champion Chase race.
VOY POR ESTUDES - Currently 2nd fav @ 3/1, but beaten by MASTER MINDED on Sat 9 Feb.
rp - Connections of Voy Por Ustedes were inclined to blame the sticky ground. Barry Simpson, racing manager for owner Sir Robert Ogden, said: “This has not dampened our enthusiasm for the Champion Chase because the winner is a good horse and we were giving him 6lb. Robert Thornton reported that the tacky ground didn't help, and, of course, Ruby had a soft lead on the winner. We'll get the pace we need at Cheltenham, and we're looking forward to the race.”
Champion Chase 2007 9 of the last 27 defending champions have retained their crown making good reading fof Voy Per Ustedes supporters. Watch how he won the Champion Chase last year.
Recent Winners Despite only having a brief history, Irish trainer Willie Mullins already possesses a phenomenal record in the race and his entrants always have to be respected.
It is also interesting to note that since Dato Star’s victory in 1995, only two non five year olds have been successful.
With the future in mind it will always be worth keeping an eye not just on the placed horses but also on some of the horses further back in the field, as the race is bound to throw up some future big race winners.
Key Trends
13 of last 15 winners had won last time out
9 of last 11 winners were 5 years old
Irish-trained horses have won 12 of the 15 runnings.
Willie Mullins has trained the winner on 5 occasions. - cheltenhamreview.net
APT APPROACH and DRIVE ON REGARDLESS are probable runners in the race from the Willie Mullins yard & join stablemate LILLYWHITE DANCER in the lineup.
13 Feb update
ZAARITO williamhill - Zaarito, an impressive winner at Naas on Saturday, has been backed for the Weatherby’s Champion Bumper at Cheltenham and is now 6/1.
Colm Murphy’s charge is unbeaten in three starts and, according to one williamhillradio.com presenter who was present in Ireland on Saturday, is the best bumper horse they have seen so far this season.
The handler explained following his success: “He’s not a very big horse and he’s not a very strong horse, but he seems to have a very big engine.
“If he improves half of what I think he can improve, he should have a serious chance.”
LILLYWHITE DANCER is the one to be with in this race £200 WIN @ 12/1
Willy Mullins has won this race time after time and this one is his number 1!!
Cheltenham Tips - Champion Horses Have Recent Form! With the big championship races (The Gold Cup, World Hurdle, Champion Hurdle and Queen Mother) you can rule out horses which didnt finish in the first three on their latest start. 31 of the last 32 winners of these races all ran in the last three on their most recent run.
Cheltenham Tips - Age of Championship Winners Out of the last 32 Championship winners at the Cheltenham festival, 28 were aged between seven and nine. A great tip which will rule out a lot of runners. - cheltenham-betting.co.uk
This looks like KAUTO STAR's race unless the ground is really soft or he falls.
DENMAN looks the best of the rest and has a chance if the ground comes up soft. He would be the likely winner in most other years.
Kicking King out of Gold Gup
Kicking King failed to sparkle in a workout and misses the Gold Cup
by Tony O'Hehir
KICKING KING will miss the Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup after failing to please trainer Tom Taaffe in a gallop on Wednesday morning.
The trainer now hopes the 2005 Gold Cup winner can return to action at Fairyhouse later this month or the Punchestown festival.
Taaffe said: "Kicking King won't be going to Cheltenham. He failed to sparkle as he should have done when he worked this morning and there is no point in sending him for the Gold Cup."
KickingKing has run twice this season since returning from an absence of over two years due to a leg injury.
He finished second to Nickname in the three-runner Normans Grove Chase at Gowran Park before finishing a disappointing third in the Red Mills Chase at the same track last month when a trapped nerve was reported to have affected his performance.
Owner Conor Clarkson said: "Unfortunately after a work-out this this morning Tom Taaffe wasn't happy, and neither was Barry Geraghty, with his work.
"We've therefore no option but to say he will not be running in the Gold Cup.
"Obviously there just something a little amiss at the moment," he told At The Races.
"His legs are fine but the quality would not be up to the standard of the Gold Cup.
"He's just not firing on all cylinders."
Clarkson insists Kicking King will not be retired after this setback and will instead be primed for the Punchestown Gold Cup in April - a race he won three years ago.
"This has nothing to do with his retirement, it is just the quality of his work," he added.
"His work was reasonable but Tom is an astute trainer and Barry is a top jockey.
"The quality of his work was just not up to the quality that he'd been producing in the last coupleof months.
"There may be a lingering, low-grade virus there and he'll have a nice little break now.
"If he shows sparkle in his work in the next couple of weeks we'd be delighted to go to Punchestown.
"The Punchestown Gold Cup is now the target."
Kicking King, also a winner of the King George VI Chase in 2004 and 2005, was as low as 20-1 to regain his Gold Cup crown on March 14. - channel4racing.com
Key Trends
No winner older than 10 for 39 years.
13 of the last 14 winners aged between 7 and 9.
8 of the last 10 winners were placed at the Festival before.
The last 53 horses to be beaten in the Gold Cup before were beaten again. - cheltenhamreview.net
Key Races The December Festival Hurdle at Leopardstown has seen six of the last ten winners. Runners in this seasons race who look to be contending the 2008 Champion Hurdle are Hardy Eustace and Jazz Messenger.
AIG Europe Champion Hurdle The AIG Europe Champion Hurdle 1-2 filled the same spots in the 2006 Champion Hurdle. 6 of the last 11 Champion hurdle winners took part in the AIG Europe with four doubles being completed.
Sizing Europe is looking to add to the list this year after beating Hardy Eustace by an impressive 8 lengths.
Champion Hurdle 2007 You might want to watch the 2007 race a few times as 5 of the last 8 Champion hurdle winners had filled a place in the previous years race. Sublimity was unlucky not to make that stat 6/8 as he was hampered by a loose horse at the turn in 2006. Will Sublimity win back to back Champion Hurdles or can Afsoun turn the form around? - cheltenham-betting.co.uk
Champion Horses Have Recent Form!
With the big championship races (The Gold Cup, World Hurdle, Champion Hurdle and Queen Mother) you can rule out horses which didnt finish in the first three on their latest start. 31 of the last 32 winners of these races all ran in the first three on their most recent run.
Age of Championship Winners Out of the last 32 Championship winners at the Cheltenham festival, 28 were aged between seven and nine. A great tip which will rule out a lot of runners. - cheltenham-betting.co.uk
Favorites 5-13
But only 2-10 if you exclude ISTABRAQ's 3 wins on the trot in the race
Key Trends
21 of the last 24 winners won last time out.
All 73 five-year-olds since 1985 have been beaten.
13 of the last 16 winners had finished 1st or 2nd at the Cheltenham Festival before.
15 of the last 17 winners started in the first 5 in the betting.
EBAZIYAN 100 e/w @ 25/1
This horse won last years Supreme Novices Hurdle after showing very little during the winter.
It was nominated by Willy Mullins as his selection for a Cheltenham Yankee bet in the Racing Post some months back.
The horse has been ignored possibly because of the poor record of Supreme Novice winners in the Champion Hurdle race.
However last years winner of the Champion Hurdle SUBLIMITY, at a price of 16/1, finished 4th in the 2006 Supreme Novices Hurdle .
In a recent interview with W. Mullins he said "Based on his form last winter you would not have fancied EBAZIYAN to win the Supreme Novices Hurdle, but he did.
EBAZIYAN is a spring horse and needs GOOD ground, anything the horse achieves on heavier going in the winter is a bonus".
Update - 28 JAN
A very impressive performance by SIZING EUROPE in the AIG Champion Hurdle in SOFT ground BUT there is still 6 weeks to go before C-day!!
EBAZIYAN btn 15 lengths in ground that was never going to suit, and now available @ 33/1.
SIZING EUROPE had the race run to suit this day with a strong pace and he is an out-and-out galloper.
EBAZIYAN comes good in the spring and as long as he gets GOOD ground at Cheltenham I can see him finishing a lot stronger than on this occasion!!
Only time will tell, but Willie Mullins didn't seem that bothered after the race when interviewed.
There was an interview with Dave Duggan on ATR on the subject of the Champion Hurdle and he mentioned a Dark horse in Ireland that could be the 2008 winner of this race.
Today (23 Jan) I read Noel Meade may run NICANOR in the race, subject to a positive result from an x-ray next week of a slight crack in a cannonbone.
THISTHATANDTOTHER has been installed as the jolly for this one by Irish bookmaker Cashmans.
Irish horses have a very good record in this race filling the first 4 places last year headed by DROMBEAG, and the first 5 home in 2006 led by WHYSO MAYO.
There is a Hunters Chase on Sunday at Leopardstown which should provide some clues to the strength of the Irish change this year - racingPost (6 Feb)
Recent Winners The Coral Cup is first of the big handicap hurdles run at the meeting and is, therefore, a huge betting heat. A well handicapped horse is essential and it often pays to wait until the day of the race to see where the money is going before finalising a selection.
Having said that, only one favourite has been successful in recent years (Xenophon was backed down from long odds to 4/1F in 2003) and in that time some monster gambles have been foiled by relatively unconsidered outsiders.
Key Trends 9 of the last 11 winners carried no more than 10 stone.
Only 1 favourite has won in the last 13 renewals. - cheltenhamreview.net
RINGAROSES
RacingPost - Interesting for the Coral Cup.
RacingPost - Henrietta Knight has the Champion Hurdle in mind for this one in 2009.
WINGMAN - won the Totesport Trophy Hurdle on 9 Feb and will be aimed at the Coral Cup. Previous winners of the Totesport finished 1st, 2nd and Unplaced in this race.
MON MICHEL - Withdrawn from the Totesport Trophy when well backed, is a Classier animal than the winner WINGMAN. Both horses are trained by Gary Moore, interesting if both turn up for this race.
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